The past week was rich in events: the leading cryptocurrency confidently recovered from its June crash, the MiCA transitional period officially ended in Europe, and Russia finally set specific timelines for launching its long-awaited regulation. Let's break down the key trends.

Bitcoin Returns to the Game

The beginning of July was a breath of fresh air for Bitcoin. After its worst month in four years, when the price dropped to a two-year low of around $57,700, the asset made an impressive rebound. By July 1, the rate had stabilized above $60,000, and by Saturday, the 4th, it reached a local high of $63,300 on Binance. The week ended with a correction to the $62,700 mark, which nevertheless represents a 4.6% gain over seven days.

Interestingly, the recovery was selective. Some altcoins in the top 10 showed much more aggressive dynamics. Solana gained 12.7%, Ethereum 11.7%, and the Hyperliquid token rose by more than 10%. This suggests that investors have begun to actively shift from the "safe haven" of Bitcoin into riskier, but potentially more profitable assets, amid expectations of a reversal in the Fed's monetary policy.

Despite the positive price dynamics, fundamental flows into ETFs remain a worrying signal. Outflows from spot Bitcoin funds have continued for the eighth consecutive week, totaling $526.6 million. However, there is a glimmer of hope here: during the trading session on July 2, the products recorded an inflow of $221.7 million. Ethereum ETFs are also out of favor, with a weekly loss of $13.7 million. The Fear and Greed Index, although it rose from 18 to 23 points, is still in the "extreme fear" zone, which for experienced analysts is often a contrarian indicator.

Europe Closes the "Window of Opportunity"

July 1, 2026, became a landmark date for the entire crypto market of the European Union. The transitional period under the MiCA regulation has expired, and now all cryptocurrency platforms wishing to serve clients in the EU are required to hold a valid license. The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) made it clear: operating without authorization is now a direct violation of the law.

At the end of the transitional period, ESMA's register listed 244 authorized providers. In recent days, companies in Italy, France, Malta, and Spain received licenses. Among the approved platforms with notable liquidity are Kraken, Coinbase, and Bitstamp. This means that "gray" zones for crypto businesses in Europe have virtually disappeared. Regulatory certainty is certainly positive for institutional players, but it also raises the entry barrier and operational costs for all market participants.

Russia: From Words to Deeds

This week, we gained a clearer understanding of the timelines for launching crypto regulation in Russia. First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank, Vladimir Chistyukhin, stated that the basic law could come into force as early as September 1. After that, market participants will have time to prepare, including collecting documents, obtaining licenses, and restructuring internal processes. According to the regulator, the transitional period will last until July 1, 2027, after which administrative and criminal liability for illegal operations will come into effect.

This is a long-awaited but extremely cautious step. The Deputy Chairman expects the first operations under the new regime by the end of this year or the beginning of the next. Such a lengthy preparatory period indicates that the regulator does not want to repeat the mistakes of "quick" decisions, aiming to build a system that is as controlled and safe as possible for itself.

Ecosystem News: Ethereum for Institutions and StarkNet's Quantum Protection

In the Ethereum ecosystem, an independent non-profit organization, Ethereum Institutional, has been launched. Its goal is to promote the network among banks and asset managers. This is another step towards the legitimization and institutionalization of the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, which, in my opinion, is extremely important for its long-term growth.

StarkWare, meanwhile, has presented a roadmap for protecting the StarkNet network from quantum threats. The company plans to replace the remaining dependencies on elliptic curves with post-quantum cryptography. Given StarkNet's architectural advantage, which uses STARK proofs based on hash functions, the developers call their roadmap the "strongest" in the industry. This is a correct and timely step, as the quantum threat is not science fiction, but a matter of time.

My Expert Conclusion: The week showed that the market is in a phase of consolidation and searching for new drivers. Bitcoin's rebound is technically strong, but the constant outflow from ETFs indicates a lack of confidence among major players in the current levels. MiCA is a historic step that will set a precedent for other jurisdictions, including Russia, where regulatory clarity is finally taking on real shape.