The Bitcoin market is exhibiting a unique analytical event: 14 out of 17 tracked on-chain indicators have simultaneously entered the "Bottom" phase. This is an extremely rare level of signal convergence, which historically precedes the formation of a price bottom. Analyst KillaXBT emphasizes that such a massive coincidence is not just broad metric agreement, but an exceptional confluence of circumstances requiring close attention.
Which metrics are signaling a bottom?
Fundamental value indicators have entered the "Bottom" phase. The adjusted MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio is recorded at 19. This indicator compares the current market capitalization to the price at which each coin last moved, and its current value points to a zone of historical undervaluation.
In the same phase are the Balanced Price at 20 and the Delta Price at 12. Both fair value models historically indicate zones where the asset is considered oversold. The MVRV Z-Score has dropped to 6, statistically demonstrating a significant deviation of the market price from the average acquisition price of all coins.
Also classified as bottom are: Long-Term Supply MVRV at 10, the base MVRV ratio at 19, and the Realized Price at 19. The latter reflects the average purchase price of all coins in the network, and its current position confirms that the market is near the breakeven point for the average holder.
Several metrics show extremely low values. The Percentage Supply in Profit and the Percentage UTXOs in Profit have dropped to 0. This means the vast majority of coins are in a breakeven or slight loss zone — a classic sign of capitulation.
Other price benchmarks remain in the "bottom" phase: the realized price for long-term supply (LTS) at 6, for short-term supply (STS) at 24, as well as the short-term MVRV supply at 15, STS NUPL (unrealized profit/loss of short-term holders) at 13, and the Top Price model at 14.
Bearish signals and monthly dynamics
Not all indicators have reached the bottom. Three of them remain in the Bearish phase: LTS NUPL (unrealized profit/loss of long-term holders) at 33, the Market Cap To Thermocap Ratio at 39, and the overall NUPL at 37. The NUPL indicator reflects whether the market as a whole is in profit or loss. Values near zero indicate a zone where past sell-offs have more often exhausted themselves rather than deepened. The Thermocap ratio compares market capitalization to the cumulative revenue of miners over all time.
The 30-day dynamics for most metrics are negative or neutral, suggesting a gradual slide towards the bottom. The largest monthly decline was in LTS NUPL, dropping by 3 points, followed by NUPL and the Thermocap ratio, each falling by 2 points. However, some indicators rose over the month. The realized price for short-term supply (STS) increased by 3 points, the short-term MVRV supply also rose by 3 points, and STS NUPL showed the most notable growth, climbing by 9 points.
My analysis: The convergence of 14 out of 17 metrics in the "bottom" phase is a signal that cannot be ignored. Historically, such patterns have preceded significant trend reversals. However, the remaining bearish signals (LTS NUPL, NUPL, and Thermocap) indicate that pressure from long-term holders and miners has not yet been fully exhausted. The market is likely in the final stage of consolidation, but to confirm the bottom, we need to see these three metrics transition to a neutral or bullish phase. Monitor their dynamics in the coming weeks.