The past week was rich in landmark events: Bitcoin managed to recover part of its June losses, the European Union completed the transitional period for MiCA, and Russia finally set specific timelines for launching crypto regulation. Let's break down the key trends.

Bitcoin: Bounce from Local Bottom Amid Macroeconomic Uncertainty

The first cryptocurrency started the week with a strong bounce from the $57,700 zone, which became a nearly two-year low. On July 1, the rate surpassed the $60,000 mark, and by the weekend it had risen to $63,300, although it corrected to around $62,700 by the end of the week. The weekly gain was 4.6%. Interestingly, altcoins showed more impressive dynamics: Solana gained 12.7%, Ethereum 11.7%, and the Hyperliquid token rose by more than 10%. This indicates a flow of capital from "blue chips" into riskier assets, confirmed by a decrease in Bitcoin dominance from 58.1% to 57.9%.

Despite the positive price dynamics, fundamental indicators remain concerning. The Fear and Greed Index only slightly rose from 18 to 23 points, remaining in the "extreme fear" zone. Outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs have continued for the eighth consecutive week, totaling $526.6 million. However, there is also an encouraging signal: on July 2, products attracted $221.7 million, which may indicate a shift in sentiment among large investors. The total market capitalization recovered from $2.07 trillion to $2.17 trillion.

MiCA: Europe Closes Doors for Unlicensed Platforms

July 1, 2026, became a historic date for the EU crypto industry — the transitional period for the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation expired. From now on, all cryptocurrency platforms serving European clients are required to have a license issued in accordance with unified EU standards. The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) made it clear: operating without authorization is now considered a direct violation of the law.

According to the ESMA register, by the end of the transitional period, there were 244 authorized crypto service providers in the EU and the European Economic Area. In the final days, companies in Italy, France, Malta, and Spain received licenses. Among the approved platforms with notable spot liquidity are Kraken, Coinbase, and Bitstamp. Meanwhile, the European Commission has already launched a process to review MiCA to assess its relevance in light of market developments and international regulation.

Russia: Crypto Regulation Starts September 1

First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of Russia, Vladimir Chistyukhin, outlined key dates for the legalization of the crypto market in the country at the Bank of Russia Financial Congress. The law "On Digital Currency and Digital Rights" could come into force as early as September 1, 2026. After that, market participants will be given time to prepare until July 1, 2027. From this date, administrative and criminal liability for illegal cryptocurrency operations should come into effect.

According to Chistyukhin, the first operations under the new regime can be expected by the end of this year or the beginning of next. This is a signal for businesses: prepare documents, obtain licenses, and restructure internal processes. There is no time to delay — the regulator is determined.

Ecosystem News: Ethereum for Institutions and StarkNet Quantum Protection

An independent non-profit organization, Ethereum Institutional, has been launched within the Ethereum ecosystem to promote the network among banks and asset managers. The operational team includes David Walsh, Marius Smith, and Matthew Dawson. Anchor sponsors are BitMine Immersion Technologies, Sharplink, and ConsenSys CEO Joseph Lubin. This is an important step for the institutional adoption of the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap.

StarkWare has presented a roadmap for protecting StarkNet from quantum threats. The plan involves replacing dependencies on elliptic curves with post-quantum cryptography. The architectural advantage of StarkNet, which uses STARK proofs based on hash functions, makes it one of the most secure L2 networks in this regard.

What Else to Discuss?

  • The Ministry of Digital Development will become the single regulator for AI in Russia.
  • Strategy's valuation fell below the value of its Bitcoin reserves for the first time.
  • Meta introduced AI for decoding brain activity.
  • Google warned the EU about privacy threats due to new search engine requirements.
  • Buterin named the main priorities of the new Ethereum roadmap.
  • Loopring announced the closure of its DEX.
  • JPMorgan criticized Strategy's decision to sell Bitcoin.

My Professional Commentary: Bitcoin's recovery above $62,500 is more of a technical bounce than the start of a new bullish trend. Fundamental indicators, such as continued ETF outflows and a low Fear and Greed Index, point to ongoing uncertainty. MiCA is certainly a positive step for the institutional legitimacy of the market in Europe, but it also creates barriers to entry for smaller players. As for Russia, setting clear timelines is a long-awaited signal for the market, but real activity will not begin until at least 2027. The market is in a consolidation phase, and I expect that the key driver for the next move will be macroeconomic data from the US, rather than internal crypto news.