The Bitcoin market has issued a rare analytical signal. As many as 14 out of 17 key on-chain indicators tracked by the dashboard have entered the "Bottom" phase. This is not just a broad correlation — it is an anomalous coincidence that, according to industry analysts, is only recorded at moments when the market is closest to a price bottom.
What do the metrics show at the bottom?
Among the indicators that have entered the bottom zone are the adjusted MVRV ratio (market capitalization to realized capitalization) with a value of 19. It shows how much the current Bitcoin price deviates from the average price at which coins were last moved on the network. A similar position was taken by the Balanced Price (20) and the Delta Price (12) — fair value models below which the asset has historically been considered undervalued.
The MVRV Z-Score indicator has dropped to 6. This indicator compares the market price to the average purchase price of all coins (realized price) and statistically shows how far the market has deviated from this baseline valuation. The bottom zone also includes the long-term MVRV supply (10), the base MVRV ratio (19), and the realized price (19) — the average purchase price of all coins on the network.
A number of metrics show extremely low values. The Percentage Supply in Profit and the Percentage UTXOs in Profit have fallen to 0. This indicates that the vast majority of coins are near the breakeven zone, rather than in deep loss. Other price benchmarks remain in the "bottom" phase: the realized price for long-term supply (LTS) at 6, for short-term supply (STS) at 24, as well as the short-term MVRV supply (15), STS NUPL (13), and the Top Price model (14).
Bearish signals and monthly dynamics
Not all indicators have reached the bottom. Three of them are still in the bearish phase. These are LTS NUPL (33), the capitalization-to-thermocap ratio (39), and the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL, 37). The NUPL indicator reflects whether the market as a whole is in profit or loss. Values closer to zero indicate a zone where past sell-offs have tended to fizzle out rather than deepen. The thermocap ratio compares market capitalization to the cumulative income of miners over all time.
The 30-day dynamics for most metrics are negative or neutral, suggesting a gradual slide toward the bottom. The largest decline over the month was in LTS NUPL — down by 3 points, as well as NUPL and the thermocap ratio — each down by 2 points. At the same time, some indicators rose over the month. The realized price for short-term supply (STS) increased by 3 points, the short-term MVRV supply also rose by 3 points, and STS NUPL showed the most notable growth — up by 9 points.
Analyst comment: The coincidence of 14 out of 17 indicators in the bottom zone is indeed a rare event that historically preceded the start of new bullish cycles. However, three bearish metrics, especially NUPL and the thermocap ratio, do not yet confirm a full reversal. The market is at a critical point: if the remaining bearish indicators begin to turn around, we will see a powerful buy signal. If they continue to deteriorate, the current "bottom" may turn out to be only an intermediate stop before a deeper correction.