The past week was rich in events: Bitcoin managed to bounce back from local lows, the transition period for the MiCA regulation ended in the European Union, and Russia finally set a date for launching crypto regulation. We analyze the key trends and their implications for the market.
Bitcoin Recovers, but Fear Persists
The leading cryptocurrency, which experienced its worst month in four years, started the week with a confident rebound from the $57,700 mark. On July 1, the price surpassed the $60,000 level, and by Saturday it reached a local high of $63,300. The asset gained 4.6% over the week. The upward movement was spurred by statements from Fed Governor Kevin Warsh about persistently high inflation in the US, which temporarily eased pressure on risk assets.
However, capital outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs continued for the eighth consecutive week, totaling $526.6 million. The only exception was Tuesday, July 2, when the products attracted $221.7 million. Ethereum funds also saw outflows of $13.7 million. The Fear and Greed Index, while rising from 18 to 23 points, remains in the "extreme fear" zone, indicating persistent nervousness among market participants.
MiCA: A New Phase of Regulation in the EU
July 1, 2026, became a landmark date for the cryptocurrency market in the European Union. The transition period for crypto platforms operating under national rules expired. Now, all companies that have not obtained a license under the MiCA regulation must cease servicing clients from the EU. Violating this requirement is considered a direct breach of the law.
By the end of the transition period, there were 244 authorized crypto service providers in the EU and the European Economic Area. In the final days, several major players received licenses in Italy, France, Malta, and Spain. Notably, the European Commission has already initiated a review of the regulation itself, launching public consultations. This indicates that regulators recognize the need to adapt rules to a rapidly changing reality.
Russia: Crypto Regulation from September 1
This week, the Bank of Russia outlined long-awaited timelines. First Deputy Governor of the Central Bank, Vladimir Chistyukhin, stated that the law on regulating the crypto market could come into effect on September 1, 2026. After that, market participants will be given time to prepare—the transition period will last until July 1, 2027. From this date, administrative and criminal liability for illegal operations will begin to apply.
Chistyukhin also noted that the first operations under the new regime could be expected by the end of this year or the beginning of next. This is an important signal for business: the process of legalizing the crypto industry in Russia is finally taking concrete shape.
Ecosystem and Infrastructure
In the Ethereum ecosystem, an independent non-profit organization, Ethereum Institutional, was launched, aimed at promoting the network among institutional investors. The operational team includes experienced specialists, and the anchor sponsors are BitMine Immersion Technologies, Sharplink, and ConsenSys CEO Joseph Lubin.
StarkWare, the company behind StarkNet, presented a roadmap for transitioning to post-quantum cryptography. The three-phase plan involves replacing dependencies on elliptic curves and implementing quantum-resistant signatures. This is a timely step, given growing concerns about future security threats.
My opinion: The week showed that the market is in a consolidation phase. Bitcoin's rebound is more of a technical than a fundamental trend, especially against the backdrop of continued ETF outflows. The main events of the week are regulatory shifts. MiCA is starting to operate at full capacity, which could lead to consolidation of the European market and the exit of small unlicensed players. In Russia, on the contrary, we see a long-awaited step toward legalization, which in the long term could attract capital and create new jobs. We are closely monitoring developments.