The Bitcoin market is sending a rare analytical signal: 14 out of 17 tracked on-chain indicators are simultaneously in the "bottom" phase. This is a unique convergence that has historically occurred only at moments of complete alignment of fundamental factors pointing to the asset being undervalued.
Analyst KillaXBT, specializing in on-chain data, has recorded this anomaly. According to their assessment, the current situation is fundamentally different from a simple broad consensus of metrics. It is a rare coincidence of signals where market sentiment was bearish at the highs, and now, at the lows, they have taken a bullish position based on the data.
Which metrics signal a bottom?
Most key value indicators are in the "Bottom" zone. The adjusted MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio shows a value of 19 — this is the ratio of the market price to the average price of the last coin movement. In the same phase are the Balanced Price at level 20 and the Delta Price at level 12. These fair value models historically indicate a zone below which the asset is considered undervalued.
The MVRV Z-Score has dropped to 6, statistically showing how much the current market price has deviated from the average purchase price of all coins. Also classified as bottom are the Long-Term Supply MVRV with a value of 10, the base MVRV ratio (19), and the Realized Price — 19. The latter reflects the average purchase price of all coins in the network.
Extremely low values are shown by the Percentage Supply in Profit and the Percentage UTXOs in Profit — both metrics have fallen to 0. This means that almost all coins are near the breakeven zone, which is characteristic of deep market downturns.
Other price benchmarks also remain in the "bottom" phase: the realized price for long-term supply (LTS) — 6, for short-term supply (STS) — 24, as well as the short-term MVRV supply — 15, STS NUPL (unrealized profit/loss of short-term holders) — 13, and the Top Price model — 14.
Bearish metrics and monthly dynamics
Not all indicators have reached the bottom. Three of them are still in a bearish phase: LTS NUPL (unrealized profit/loss of long-term holders) — 33, the Market Cap to Thermocap Ratio — 39, and Net Unrealized P&L (NUPL) — 37. The NUPL indicator reflects whether the market as a whole is in profit or loss. Values close to zero indicate a zone where past sell-offs have more often exhausted themselves rather than deepened. The ratio to thermocap compares market capitalization with the cumulative revenue of miners over all time.
The 30-day dynamics for most metrics are negative or neutral, indicating a gradual slide towards the bottom. The largest decline over the month was in LTS NUPL — by 3 points, as well as NUPL and the ratio to thermocap — by 2 points each. At the same time, some indicators increased over the month. The realized price for short-term supply (STS) rose by 3 points, short-term MVRV supply also by 3 points, and STS NUPL showed the most noticeable growth — by 9 points.
My expert opinion: The convergence of so many metrics in the "bottom" zone is a powerful fundamental signal that cannot be ignored. However, the remaining bearish indicators (especially NUPL and LTS NUPL) suggest that the market has not yet fully purged the overheating. The most likely scenario is not a sharp reversal, but the formation of a broad consolidation base with possible retests of support zones. A true reversal will only be confirmed when these "bearish" metrics begin to confidently transition into a bullish or neutral phase.