The Bitcoin market is sending clear signals that it is approaching the end of the current bear cycle. Key on-chain metrics, which have historically indicated market bottoms, are now at levels close to the absolute lows of 2022. This refers to the supply in profit ratio and the dynamics of hashrate and mining difficulty — two fundamental indicators that rarely lie.
Supply in Profit: The 'Bear' Bottom Zone
The "Supply in Profit" metric (the share of circulating bitcoins that are in profit) has dropped to 51.9%. This value has entered the zone traditionally associated with the bear market phase and cycle bottom. For context: levels above 80% are typical of bull markets and euphoria, the 55-80% range is a transitional phase, and anything below 55% is deep correction territory.
Since June of this year, the indicator has consistently remained in this "red" zone. The downward trend has persisted since October 2025, and the metric is now approaching the level of around 44%, which marked the absolute bottom of the 2022 bear market. In the previous cycle, the bottom phase lasted about eight months. If history repeats itself, the current phase could extend until September-October.
Hashrate and Difficulty: Record-Long Compression
The second alarming yet telling signal is the dynamics of hashrate and mining difficulty. Both indicators continue to decline within a global structural trend following a sharp drop in January-February. The key difference between the current situation and previous corrections is the unprecedented duration of the decline.
Historically, continuous hashrate declines lasted 64 days (May-July 2021) and 86 days (April-July 2024). The current decline has already stretched to 234 days — about seven months of continuous compression. This indicates significant pressure on miners and a fundamental restructuring of the network.
However, there is also a flip side. Once a sustained upward trend is established in these indicators, it will become a powerful medium- and long-term signal of renewed interest in the network and infrastructure expansion.
My expert opinion: The current situation is a classic example of the synchronous operation of two key indicators: both holders and the network fundamentals point to the lower phase of the cycle. For patient investors, this is not a reason for panic but, on the contrary, an accumulation zone. However, it is worth remembering that the "bottom" is not a point but a process, and it could drag on for several more months.