The past week was a landmark one for the crypto market: Bitcoin confidently recovered from its June slump, while the final stage of the MiCA regulation came into effect in Europe, reshaping the landscape for crypto businesses. Against this backdrop, Russia also outlined specific dates for launching its own crypto regulation, adding intrigue to the global agenda.

Bitcoin: Bounce from Lows and Shift in Sentiment

The leading cryptocurrency started the week with a strong bounce from the local bottom around $57,700, reached at the end of June. By July 1, prices had surpassed the $60,000 mark, and by Saturday, July 4, the rate had risen to $63,300 on Binance. Despite a subsequent correction to $62,700, Bitcoin gained 4.6% over the week. The growth driver was statements from new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh about persistently high inflation, which spurred interest in safe-haven assets.

Interestingly, altcoins showed even more impressive dynamics: Solana rose by 12.7%, Ethereum by 11.7%, and the Hyperliquid token increased by more than 10%. This indicates a capital shift from Bitcoin into riskier assets amid expectations of monetary policy easing.

However, investors remain cautious. Outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs continued for the eighth consecutive week, totaling $526.6 million. Nevertheless, on July 2, the products attracted $221.7 million in a single day, which could signal an imminent trend reversal. The Fear and Greed Index, while rising from 18 to 23 points, still remains in the "extreme fear" zone, which historically often precedes strong movements.

MiCA: A New Era for Crypto Business in Europe

On July 1, 2026, the transition period for crypto platforms under the MiCA regulation expired. Now, all companies that failed to obtain a license in the EU must cease servicing European clients. According to ESMA, by this time, the register listed 244 authorized crypto service providers, including giants like Kraken, Coinbase, and Bitstamp.

This is a historic moment: the EU has created a unified legal framework for the crypto industry, setting standards for the entire world. Notably, the European Commission has already begun reviewing the regulation to adapt it to the rapidly changing market. This shows that regulators are not planning to stop there.

Russia: Crypto Regulation on the Horizon

Russia has also set its dates. First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Vladimir Chistyukhin stated that the law on crypto market regulation could come into force on September 1, 2026. The transition period for market participants will last until July 1, 2027, after which administrative and criminal liability for illegal operations will take effect.

The first operations under the new regime are expected by the end of this year or early next year. This is an important step for legalizing the industry in Russia, but, as always, the details of the by-laws remain key.

Other Events of the Week

  • The Ministry of Digital Development will become the sole regulator of AI in Russia.
  • Strategy's valuation fell below the value of its Bitcoin reserves for the first time.
  • Meta introduced an AI for decoding brain activity.
  • Google warned the EU about privacy threats due to new search engine requirements.
  • An independent structure, Ethereum Institutional, was launched within the Ethereum ecosystem to work with institutional players.
  • StarkWare presented a roadmap to protect StarkNet from quantum threats.

My View on the Market

Despite Bitcoin's positive dynamics, the market is still in a phase of uncertainty. Outflows from ETFs and a low Fear and Greed Index indicate that investors are waiting for clearer signals. However, the enactment of MiCA and preparations for regulation in Russia are long-term bullish factors that legitimize the industry and attract institutional capital. The coming weeks will show whether Bitcoin can consolidate above $63,000 and continue its upward trend.