The Bitcoin market is sending increasingly clear signals that it is approaching the end of the bearish phase. Key on-chain metrics — the supply in profit ratio and the dynamics of the hash rate and mining difficulty — are showing values last seen during the absolute bottom of the 2022 cycle. These two indicators, working in tandem, suggest that the current correction may be the final one.
Supply in Profit: Falling into the "Bear" Zone
The Supply in Profit indicator has dropped to 51.9%. This means that less than 52% of all circulating bitcoins are currently in profit based on their acquisition price. This level firmly enters the "bear market" zone (below 55%), where the market historically forms a bottom. Since October 2025, the metric has shown a sustained downward trend, approaching the level of around 44% — the exact level that marked the absolute bottom of the previous bear cycle in 2022. Based on historical data, the bottom phase in the last cycle lasted about eight months. If the current dynamics persist, the present phase could extend until September-October 2026.
Hash Rate and Difficulty: Record-Long Compression
The second crucial signal comes from the network. The hash rate and mining difficulty have been declining for 234 consecutive days — about seven months of continuous compression. For comparison, previous record decline periods lasted 64 days (May-July 2021) and 86 days (April-July 2024). The current decline is more than double those values. Such a prolonged drop in fundamental network indicators, reflecting its security and computational power, is an extremely rare and powerful signal. It indicates significant pressure on miners, which often precedes a trend reversal.
My analysis: The combination of these two factors — an extremely low share of profitable coins and a record-long decline in the hash rate — forms a classic picture of the final stage of a bear cycle. The market is flushing out weak hands and forcing miners to capitulate. It is precisely at such moments, when fear and despair peak, that the foundation for a new bull rally is laid. Current levels represent an accumulation zone for long-term investors, but high volatility remains for short-term trading. A recovery in the hash rate will be the trigger that confirms a trend change.