The past week was eventful: the first cryptocurrency confidently recovered from local lows, the transitional period of MiCA regulation ended in Europe, and the Russian Central Bank finally set specific dates for launching crypto regulation. Let's break down the key events.
Bitcoin Recovers June Losses
The beginning of July was a period of confident recovery for Bitcoin. After the worst June in four years, the asset bounced from a two-year low near $57,700 on July 1 and broke through the $60,000 mark the very next day. The growth driver was hawkish statements from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who pointed to persistently high inflation in the US, reducing expectations of an imminent monetary policy easing.
The upward trend persisted even amid sell-offs in chipmaker stocks. By Saturday, July 4, the rate reached a local high of $63,300 on Binance, before correcting to $62,700. Over the week, the first cryptocurrency gained 4.6%. However, altcoins in the top 10 showed more impressive dynamics: Solana rose by 12.7%, Ethereum by 11.7%, and the Hyperliquid token increased by more than 10%.
Despite the positive price dynamics, outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs continued for the eighth consecutive week, totaling $526.6 million. However, on July 2, the products attracted $221.7 million, which could signal a shift in institutional sentiment. Ethereum-based funds also lost $13.7 million over the week.
The Fear and Greed Index, remaining in the extreme fear zone, rose from 18 to 23 points. The total market capitalization recovered from $2.07 trillion to $2.17 trillion, with Bitcoin's dominance decreasing from 58.1% to 57.9%, while Ethereum's share jumped from 9.2% to 9.8%.
MiCA: Europe Closes Transitional Period
July 1, 2026, became a landmark date for the European crypto market — the transitional period of the MiCA regulation expired. From this day, all crypto platforms that have not obtained a license are required to cease servicing clients from the EU. According to ESMA, by the end of the transitional period, there were 244 authorized crypto service providers in the EU and EEA. Among the approved platforms with notable spot liquidity are Kraken, Coinbase, and Bitstamp.
Notably, the European Commission has already launched a review of the regulation, assessing its relevance in light of market developments and international regulation. This indicates that MiCA is not a static document but a living tool that will adapt to new realities.
Central Bank of Russia: Crypto Regulation to Begin September 1
First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of Russia Vladimir Chistyukhin, at the Bank of Russia Financial Congress, set the date for launching crypto regulation — September 1. After the law comes into force, market participants will be given time to prepare until July 1, 2027. From this date, administrative and criminal liability for illegal cryptocurrency operations should come into effect.
Chistyukhin expects the first operations under the new regime by the end of this year or the beginning of next. This is a long-awaited step that will finally bring certainty to the Russian crypto market, although strict deadlines and licensing requirements may lead to consolidation and the exit of small players.
Ecosystem News: Ethereum for Institutions and StarkNet Quantum Protection
In the Ethereum ecosystem, an independent non-profit organization, Ethereum Institutional, has been launched, aimed at promoting the network among banks and asset managers. The operational team includes industry veterans, with anchor sponsors being BitMine, Sharplink, and ConsenSys CEO Joseph Lubin.
StarkWare presented a roadmap for protecting StarkNet from quantum threats. The plan includes replacing dependencies on elliptic curves and implementing post-quantum signatures. StarkNet's architectural advantage, using STARK proofs based on hash functions, makes it one of the most secure L2 networks in this regard.
My expert opinion: Bitcoin's recovery above $62,500 amid continued ETF outflows is a classic example of "buy the rumor, sell the news" in action. However, if institutional interest does not return, the current bounce may prove to be only a temporary respite before a new test of support. The full implementation of MiCA is a "moment of truth" for European crypto exchanges, which will lead to market consolidation and higher security standards for users.