The Bitcoin market is approaching a historic moment. Monitoring key on-chain metrics reveals a rare convergence: 14 out of 17 fundamental indicators are simultaneously signaling the formation of a price bottom (the "Bottom" phase). Such a level of correlation between independent analytical tools is an exceptional event that, in the past, has preceded a trend reversal.
The Bottom Zone: A Fundamental Assessment
In the "Bottom" phase, virtually all key fair value models have landed. The adjusted MVRV ratio is recorded at 19, indicating a minimal margin between market capitalization and realized capitalization. The Balanced Price and Delta Price are at levels of 20 and 12, respectively — historically, below these values, the asset was considered undervalued.
The MVRV Z-Score indicator deserves special attention, having dropped to 6. This statistical tool, which shows the deviation of the market price from the average acquisition price of all coins (the realized price), demonstrates anomalously low volatility characteristic of the final phases of a bear cycle. The long-term MVRV supply (10), the basic MVRV ratio (19), and the realized price (19) have also entered the same zone.
Some metrics have reached extreme values. The Percentage Supply in Profit and the Percentage UTXOs in Profit have fallen to zero. This means that the vast majority of coins are near the breakeven point — a classic sign of capitulation by short-term speculators and accumulation by "smart money."
Bearish Tail and Monthly Dynamics
Three indicators still remain in the bearish phase: LTS NUPL (unrealized profit/loss of long-term holders) at 33, the Market Cap To Thermocap Ratio at 39, and the overall NUPL at 37. However, their 30-day dynamics are negative. The largest decline was shown by LTS NUPL (-3 points), followed by NUPL and the Thermocap ratio (-2 points each). This indicates a gradual but steady slide of these metrics toward the bottom zone.
Paradoxically, some short-term indicators have risen over the month. The Realized Price of Short-Term Supply (STS) and the Short-Term MVRV Supply gained 3 points each, while STS NUPL showed the most notable increase — by 9 points. This may point to the beginning of an accumulation phase by the most price-sensitive market participants.
My analysis: The coincidence of 14 out of 17 indicators in the bottom phase is not just a technical anomaly, but a powerful fundamental signal. The market has essentially "voted" for the asset being undervalued at all levels — from short-term traders to long-term holders. The remaining three bearish indicators will likely catch up with the overall trend in the coming weeks, unless a new external shock occurs. This creates an extremely attractive entry point for medium- and long-term investors.