The Bitcoin market is once again sending signals characteristic of the final phase of a bear cycle. Key on-chain indicators — the supply in profit and hash rate dynamics — are approaching levels observed during the absolute bottom of 2022. This is not a mere coincidence, but the synchronized operation of two independent yet interconnected indicators that have historically preceded a trend reversal.
Supply in Profit: Diving into the "Bear" Zone
The "Supply in Profit" metric (the share of circulating bitcoins in profit) has dropped to 51.9%. This value has firmly settled below the 55% threshold that separates a transitional market phase from a full-fledged bear trend. The downward movement has persisted since October 2025, and the current reading is already approaching the ~44% mark — the very level that marked the bottom of the previous cycle in 2022.
It is important to understand the context: in the last cycle, the bottom phase lasted about eight months. If we apply this historical benchmark to the current situation, the lowest point may not be reached until September-October. In other words, the market is still in the process of forming a bottom, not exiting one.
Hash Rate and Difficulty: Unprecedentedly Long Compression
The second, equally significant signal is the dynamics of mining difficulty and network hash rate. Both indicators continue to decline within a global structural trend that began after a sharp drop in January-February. The key difference between the current correction and previous ones is its unprecedented duration.
Historically, continuous hash rate declines lasted 64 days (May-July 2021) and 86 days (April-July 2024). The current decline has stretched to 234 days — nearly seven months of continuous compression. For the Bitcoin network, this is an extremely unfavorable signal, reflecting a fundamental weakening of security and miner interest.
However, as with the supply in profit, there is a flip side here. The establishment of a sustained upward trend in these metrics will become a crucial medium- and long-term signal of recovery. For now, both indicators work in tandem, pointing to a single vector — movement toward the final phase of the cycle.
My professional opinion: The market is experiencing a classic capitulation, but with one important caveat — it is dragging on. This suggests that the recovery, when it begins, could be more powerful and sustainable than in previous cycles. For long-term oriented investors, current levels may represent one of the best entry opportunities in recent years, but only if they are prepared for volatility and a potentially lengthy consolidation period.