The past week was rich in events that determined the market's direction for the near future. Bitcoin managed to recover a significant portion of its June losses, while in Europe, the transitional period for cryptocurrency companies under the MiCA regulation came to an end. In Russia, meanwhile, specific timelines for launching full-fledged crypto market regulation were outlined.
Bitcoin Recovers, but Caution Remains
The key event in the market was a confident rebound of the first cryptocurrency from its local low of around $57,700. On July 1, Bitcoin surpassed the $60,000 mark, and by July 4, it reached $63,300 on Binance. Despite a subsequent correction to $62,700, the weekly gain stood at 4.6%. Notably, several altcoins from the top 10 showed even more impressive dynamics: Solana gained 12.7%, and Ethereum added 11.7%.
The upward movement began against the backdrop of statements by Fed Governor Kevin Warsh about persistently high inflation in the US, which heightened expectations of a looser monetary policy. However, investor sentiment remains cautious: the Fear and Greed Index rose only from 18 to 23 points over the week, staying in the "extreme fear" zone. Outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs continued for the eighth consecutive week, totaling $526.6 million. Nevertheless, on July 2, the products attracted $221.7 million, which could signal a possible trend reversal. The total market capitalization recovered from $2.07 trillion to $2.17 trillion, while Bitcoin's dominance slightly decreased to 57.9%, making way for altcoins.
MiCA Takes Effect: A New Era for Crypto Business in Europe
July 1, 2026, is a landmark date for the European crypto market. The transitional period for crypto platforms under the MiCA regulation has ended. Companies that failed to obtain a license must cease servicing clients from the EU. According to ESMA, by this time, the register included 244 authorized crypto service providers. Among the approved platforms with notable liquidity are Kraken, Coinbase, and Bitstamp.
It is important to note that the European Commission has already initiated a review of the regulation by launching public consultations. This indicates that the regulator recognizes the need to adapt the rules to the rapidly changing market environment and international standards.
Russia Prepares for Regulation: Timelines and Transitional Period
In Russia, the process of legalizing the crypto market has received specific timeframes. First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Vladimir Chistyukhin stated that the law could come into effect on September 1. After that, market participants will be granted a transitional period until July 1, 2027, to obtain licenses and adapt internal processes. From the same date, administrative and criminal liability for illegal cryptocurrency operations will take effect. The first operations under the new regime are expected by the end of 2026 or the beginning of 2027.
Additionally, an independent non-profit organization, Ethereum Institutional, was launched within the Ethereum ecosystem, aimed at promoting the network among institutional investors. StarkWare also presented a roadmap for protecting StarkNet from quantum threats, highlighting the industry's growing concern over long-term security issues.
My analysis. The market shows signs of stabilization, but it is premature to talk about a trend reversal. The introduction of MiCA is a dual process: on one hand, it legitimizes the industry; on the other, it creates barriers to entry. The key driver for Bitcoin remains macroeconomic factors and the actions of the Fed. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of ETF outflows—if they turn into inflows, this will become a powerful bullish signal.