The bitcoin market is showing a rare analytical picture: 14 out of 17 tracked on-chain indicators have simultaneously entered the "bottom" phase. This is not just a broad consensus—it is an extreme convergence of signals that historically precedes the formation of a price minimum.
An analysis of a panel of 17 metrics shows an unprecedented alignment of indicators. Most fundamental bitcoin valuation indicators are currently at levels previously associated with zones of maximum asset undervaluation.
Fundamental indicators at lows
The adjusted MVRV ratio (market value to realized value) has dropped to a value of 19. This indicator compares the current market price of BTC with the average price at which coins were last moved on the network. At the same levels are the Balanced Price at 20 and the Delta Price at 12—both fair value models below which the asset is historically considered undervalued.
The MVRV Z-Score, which statistically measures the deviation of the market from its baseline valuation, has fallen to 6. This indicates that the current market price has significantly deviated from the average purchase price of all coins on the network.
Extremely low values are shown by metrics related to holder profitability. The Percentage Supply in Profit and the Percentage UTXOs in Profit have dropped to zero. This means that the vast majority of coins are near the break-even zone or at a slight loss.
Bearish "tails" and monthly dynamics
Not all indicators have reached the bottom. Three metrics—LTS NUPL (unrealized profit/loss of long-term holders) at level 33, the Market Cap to Thermocap Ratio at level 39, and the overall NUPL at level 37—remain in the bearish phase. This suggests that the market has not yet undergone a full capitulation cycle, especially from long-term investors.
The dynamics over the last 30 days for most metrics are negative or neutral, confirming a gradual slide toward the bottom. The strongest declines over the month were seen in LTS NUPL (down 3 points), as well as NUPL and the Thermocap ratio (down 2 points each). However, some short-term indicators, on the other hand, showed growth: STS Realized Price and short-term MVRV gained 3 points each, while STS NUPL showed the most notable increase—up 9 points.
Analyst's conclusion
Such a coincidence of 14 out of 17 indicators in the bottom zone is a rare and significant event. It indicates that the bitcoin market is at a critical point where fundamental valuations converge at a single point. The remaining three bearish metrics will now become a key indicator: if they follow the majority and also move into the bottom zone, we will get one of the strongest confirmations of a price minimum formation in recent cycles.
My professional opinion: The convergence of such a large number of indicators is not a coincidence, but a signal of high probability. However, investors should wait for confirmation from the "bearish" metrics, especially LTS NUPL. Full capitulation by long-term holders is often the final chord before a trend reversal.