The cryptocurrency market, and especially Bitcoin, has found itself in a zone of elevated risk. My latest observations of the macroeconomic picture indicate that BTC could become the primary victim of a potential reversal in the U.S. stock market. Independent analytical findings, which come together to form a coherent chain, lead to this conclusion and paint an alarming scenario.
At the core of this chain lies the century-long cycle of the stock market. Historical data shows that the S&P 500 index repeats the same pattern: a technology boom lasting about 24–25 years, followed by a decade of stagnation. According to this logic, the current cycle, which began in 2009 with the era of smartphones, e-commerce, and AI, should end around 2033. The steepest part of the growth traditionally occurs in the final phase, and right now we are observing signs of this euphoria.
Simultaneously, a record inflow of capital into U.S. stocks is being recorded. The cumulative inflow from global investment funds since the start of the year has reached about 2.5% of their total assets under management. This figure has more than doubled since May and significantly exceeds the average level for 2002–2025, when an outflow of about 0.3% was recorded at this date. The current pace of inflows has already surpassed the full annual result typical for the median half of years since 2002. The demand for U.S. stocks can be described as unprecedented.
Bitcoin as a Hostage of the Stock Market
The key conclusion I draw from this data is as follows: the resilience of Bitcoin and other commodity and crypto assets directly depends on whether U.S. securities continue to rise. If the stock market fails to hold at its current highs, Bitcoin will likely find itself near the $10,000 mark. For comparison, gold could retreat to $3,000 per ounce, and WTI crude oil could fall below $50 per barrel.
Moreover, Bitcoin is already showing signs of being a lagging asset. Over the year leading up to July 4, it lost about 40%, while oil remained roughly flat. This demonstrates that the cryptocurrency is weakening even against the backdrop of a strong stock market. Any reversal in the stock market will hit cryptocurrencies the hardest, and the current underperformance makes it particularly vulnerable at the first sign of a shift in sentiment.
My analysis: The market is in a late, euphoric phase, where capital is flowing into stocks at record rates. Bitcoin, having lost its connection to the "digital gold" narrative, now acts as a high-risk asset tied to risk appetite. If the stock market begins to correct, BTC could fall significantly more than traditional assets. Investors should be prepared for volatility and reconsider their risks.