The past week was marked by a significant Bitcoin rebound from local lows, the expiration of the MiCA transitional period in the European Union, and the specification of timelines for launching crypto regulation in Russia. The market is showing mixed signals: price recovery amid persistent fear and capital outflows from ETFs.
Bitcoin Recovers June Losses
The leading cryptocurrency started the week with a confident recovery, rising above $60,000 after falling to a near two-year low of around $57,700. The growth was driven by comments from Fed Governor Kevin Warsh about persistent high inflation in the US, which strengthened expectations of a looser monetary policy.
By Saturday, July 4, the rate reached $63,300 on Binance, before correcting to $62,700. Bitcoin gained 4.6% over the week, but altcoins showed more impressive dynamics: Solana rose 12.7%, Ethereum gained 11.7%, and the Hyperliquid token increased by more than 10%. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization recovered from $2.07 trillion to $2.17 trillion.
Despite the positive price dynamics, outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs continued for the eighth consecutive week, totaling $526.6 million. However, on July 2, the products attracted $221.7 million, which may indicate a shift in sentiment among institutional investors. The Fear and Greed Index remains in the extreme fear zone, rising only from 18 to 23 points over the week — the market remains cautious.
MiCA: A New Era for Crypto Business in Europe
On July 1, 2026, the transitional period for the MiCA regulation ended in the European Union. Companies that did not obtain a license are required to cease servicing clients from the EU. At the end of the period, ESMA's register listed 244 authorized crypto service providers, including giants such as Kraken, Coinbase, and Bitstamp.
The European Commission has already initiated a review of the regulation, launching public and targeted consultations to assess its relevance. This is an important signal: the regulator acknowledges that the market is developing faster than legislation, and MiCA may require adjustments.
Russia: Crypto Regulation from September 1
First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of Russia Vladimir Chistyukhin stated that the law on crypto market regulation could come into force on September 1, 2026. After that, market participants will be given a transitional period until July 1, 2027, to obtain licenses and adapt processes. From that date, administrative and criminal liability for illegal operations will come into effect.
The first operations under the new regime are expected by the end of this year or the beginning of next. This is an ambitious but realistic timeline, given the complexity of bureaucratic procedures.
Ethereum Institutional and StarkNet Quantum Protection
An independent non-profit organization, Ethereum Institutional, has been launched within the Ethereum ecosystem, aimed at attracting banks and asset managers. Its goal is to become an entry point for institutions evaluating the network for tokenization and stablecoins. Anchor sponsors include BitMine Immersion Technologies, Sharplink, and ConsenSys CEO Joseph Lubin.
StarkWare presented a roadmap for protecting StarkNet from quantum threats, based on STARK proofs, which are already considered quantum-resistant. The plan includes three stages: replacing elliptic curves, implementing post-quantum signatures, and migrating contracts.
Expert Perspective
The market is at a tipping point: Bitcoin's recovery above $62,500 amid extreme fear and ETF outflows indicates high volatility in the coming weeks. MiCA is already reshaping the European crypto business landscape, and Russia is taking a decisive step toward legalization. Investors should prepare for regulatory shocks that could either support the market or increase pressure on unlicensed players.