The Bitcoin market is emitting a rare and powerful analytical signal. 14 out of 17 tracked on-chain indicators are currently in the "Bottom" phase. Such a massive convergence only occurs when fundamental metrics reach extreme values characteristic of oversold zones and historical lows.
Analysis of the metric panel shows that we are witnessing not just a broad consensus, but rather a unique convergence of signals. During previous market peaks, the same indicators displayed a "bearish" sentiment, and have now shifted to a "bullish" phase at the lows. This points to a deep structural shift in the asset's valuation.
Key Metrics in the Bottom Zone
Among the indicators that have entered the Bottom phase are the adjusted MVRV ratio (market value to realized value) at level 19, the Balanced Price at the 20 mark, and the Delta Price at level 12. These fair value models historically indicate zones below which the asset is considered undervalued.
The MVRV Z-Score indicator has dropped to 6, which statistically demonstrates a strong deviation of the market price from the average purchase price of all coins (realized price). The Long-Term Supply MVRV is fixed at level 10, and the Realized Price is at the 19 mark, reflecting the average entry price of all holders.
Particular attention should be paid to the extremely low values of the Percentage Supply in Profit and Percentage UTXOs in Profit, which have dropped to zero. This means that the vast majority of coins are near the breakeven point — a classic sign of seller exhaustion and a potential trend reversal.
Also remaining in the bottom phase are: realized price for long-term supply (LTS — 6) and short-term supply (STS — 24), short-term MVRV supply (15), STS NUPL (13), and the Top Price model (14).
Bearish Signals and Monthly Dynamics
Not all metrics have reached the bottom. Three of them remain in the "bearish" phase: LTS NUPL (33), the Market Cap To Thermocap Ratio (39), and Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL — 37). The NUPL indicator, reflecting overall market profitability, is approaching zero — a zone where previous sell-offs typically exhausted themselves rather than deepened.
The 30-day dynamics for most metrics are negative or neutral, indicating a gradual slide towards the bottom. The steepest declines over the month were seen in LTS NUPL (down 3 points), as well as NUPL and the Thermocap ratio (down 2 points each). Meanwhile, some indicators rose: the realized price for short-term supply (STS) increased by 3 points, the short-term MVRV supply also rose by 3 points, and STS NUPL showed the most significant growth — up by 9 points.
This rare convergence of 14 out of 17 indicators in the bottom zone is a powerful signal, which, in my assessment, points to a high probability of a price bottom forming in the near future. However, the remaining three "bearish" metrics (especially NUPL and the Thermocap ratio) require confirmation. Their transition into the bottom phase will be the final chord, after which a full trend reversal can be discussed. For now, the market is at a critical point where cautious optimism is justified, but not unconditional.