The Bitcoin market is once again drawing analysts' attention with a rare event: 14 out of 17 key on-chain indicators are simultaneously pointing to a "Bottom" phase. This is not just a broad consensus, but a unique convergence of signals observed only at moments of complete cyclical reversal.
Such a degree of analytical convergence is an exceptional phenomenon. When the majority of fundamental metrics align at a single point, the probability of error significantly decreases. We are currently witnessing such a moment.
What do the bottom metrics say?
In the "Bottom" phase are such critical indicators as the adjusted MVRV ratio (market value to realized value) at level 19. This indicator compares Bitcoin's current price with the average price of all recent coin movements on the network. Alongside it are the Balanced Price at level 20 and the Delta Price at level 12. Both of these fair value models have historically indicated an asset's undervaluation zone.
The MVRV Z-Score has dropped to a value of 6. This statistical tool shows how far the market has deviated from the baseline valuation (the average purchase price of all coins). A value of 6 is a zone where accumulation periods have historically begun.
Also classified as bottom are the Long-Term Supply MVRV at 10, the Base MVRV at 19, and the Realized Price at 19. The latter reflects the average purchase price of all coins on the network and is a critical support level.
Several metrics show extremely low values. The Percentage Supply in Profit and the Percentage UTXOs in Profit have dropped to zero. This means that almost all coins are near the breakeven zone — a classic sign of capitulation and the end of a bearish trend.
Other price benchmarks remain in the "Bottom" phase: the Realized Price for Long-Term Supply (LTS) at 6, for Short-Term Supply (STS) at 24, as well as the Short-Term Supply MVRV at 15, STS NUPL at 13, and the Top Price model at 14.
Bearish signals and dynamics
However, not all indicators have reached the bottom. Three of them are still in a bearish phase: LTS NUPL (unrealized profit/loss of long-term holders) at level 33, the Market Cap To Thermocap Ratio at 39, and Net Unrealized P&L (NUPL) at 37.
The NUPL indicator shows whether the market as a whole is in profit or loss. Values close to zero indicate a zone where past sell-offs have more often exhausted themselves rather than deepened. The Thermocap ratio compares market capitalization with cumulative miner revenues over all time — its high value suggests overheating, but the current dynamics indicate cooling.
The 30-day dynamics for most metrics are negative or neutral, indicating a gradual slide toward the bottom. The largest monthly decline was in LTS NUPL — down by 3 points, as well as NUPL and the Thermocap ratio — each down by 2 points.
At the same time, some indicators increased over the month. The Realized Price for Short-Term Supply (STS) rose by 3 points, the Short-Term Supply MVRV also by 3 points, and STS NUPL showed the most notable increase — by 9 points. This suggests that short-term holders are beginning to realize losses, which is a precursor to a reversal.
The convergence of 14 out of 17 indicators in the bottom zone is a rare event, indicating that the market is close to forming a price minimum. The remaining bearish metrics — LTS NUPL and the Thermocap ratio — should confirm this signal with their further dynamics.
My expert opinion: Such a high convergence of on-chain signals is a powerful bullish argument for the medium-term perspective. If the remaining bearish indicators begin to reverse in the coming weeks, we will likely see the formation of a significant local bottom. However, full confidence will only come after all 17 metrics transition to a "Bullish" or "Bottom" phase.