The past week was eventful for the crypto market: Bitcoin made an impressive rebound from local lows, the European Union completed the transitional period for the MiCA regulation, and Russia finally outlined specific timelines for launching full-fledged digital asset regulation. Let's break down the key events in detail.
Bitcoin Recovers After Worst Month in Four Years
The leading cryptocurrency started July with a powerful surge, offsetting a significant portion of June's losses, which was its worst month in four years. On July 1, the price bounced from a nearly two-year low around $57,700 and confidently surpassed the $60,000 mark. The upward movement was triggered by statements from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh about persistently high inflation in the US, fueling expectations of a looser monetary policy.
The recovery continued despite a sell-off in chipmaker stocks. By Saturday, July 4, Bitcoin reached a local high of $63,300 on Binance, before correcting to $62,700. Over the week, the asset gained 4.6%. However, several altcoins in the top 10 showed even more impressive dynamics: Solana rose 12.7%, Ethereum gained 11.7%, and the Hyperliquid token increased by over 10%. The total market capitalization recovered from $2.07 trillion to $2.17 trillion, while Bitcoin's dominance fell from 58.1% to 57.9%, and Ethereum's share jumped from 9.2% to 9.8%.
Despite the positive price action, capital outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs continued for the eighth consecutive week, totaling $526.6 million. However, a significant inflow of $221.7 million was recorded on July 2, indicating sustained interest from large players. Ethereum-based funds also saw a net outflow of $13.7 million for the week. The Fear and Greed Index, remaining in the "extreme fear" zone, edged up slightly from 18 to 23 points, reflecting highly cautious sentiment among market participants.
Europe Completes MiCA Transitional Period
On July 1, 2026, the transitional period for crypto platforms under the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation officially expired in the European Union. Companies that failed to obtain a license must cease servicing clients in the EU. This marks a crucial milestone for the entire industry: operating without authorization is now a direct violation of the law. According to the ESMA register, by the end of the transitional period, there were 244 authorized crypto service providers in the EU and EEA, including Kraken, Coinbase, and Bitstamp. Notably, the European Commission has already begun reviewing the regulation, launching public and targeted consultations to assess its relevance in a rapidly changing market.
Russia: Crypto Regulation from September 1
First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of Russia, Vladimir Chistyukhin, outlined specific timelines at the Bank of Russia Financial Congress: the law on crypto market regulation could come into force as early as September 1, 2026. After that, market participants will be granted a transitional period until July 1, 2027, to obtain licenses and adapt business processes. According to Chistyukhin, administrative and criminal liability for illegal cryptocurrency operations should take effect from that date. The Central Bank deputy chairman expects the first operations under the new regime by the end of 2026 or early 2027. This is a long-awaited step that will finally bring clarity to the legal framework for the Russian crypto business.
Ecosystem and Infrastructure News
In the Ethereum ecosystem, an independent non-profit organization, Ethereum Institutional, was launched, aimed at promoting the network among banks and institutional investors. StarkWare unveiled an ambitious roadmap to protect StarkNet from quantum threats, demonstrating a growing focus on the long-term security of L2 solutions. Additionally, Strategy's valuation fell below the value of its Bitcoin reserves for the first time, a significant signal for the market.
My Professional View: Bitcoin's rebound above $62,500 amid continued ETF outflows and extreme fear is a classic sign that the market is oversold and ready for a reversal. However, I remain cautious: confirmation of a sustained upward trend requires a close above the $65,000 level and a shift in sentiment in the Fear and Greed Index. The full implementation of MiCA is a positive signal for the market's long-term legitimacy, but in the short term, it may cause local volatility due to the exit of unauthorized players.