The Bitcoin market is sending a rare and powerful analytical signal. 14 out of 17 key on-chain indicators tracking the network's state have simultaneously entered the "Bottom" phase. Such a massive convergence is an extraordinary event, which usually precedes the formation of a significant price bottom.
My fellow analysts, particularly one of the leading market researchers, note that this level of signal convergence is a rare phenomenon. It indicates that the current market situation is fundamentally different from typical corrections. While this researcher held a bearish position at previous highs, now, with such a density of bottom signals, he has openly switched to the bullish camp.
What the Metrics Say: From MVRV to NUPL
Most indicators on the panel are in the green "Bottom" zone. Among them is the adjusted MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio at 19. This metric compares market capitalization to the "realized" value, i.e., the price at which coins last moved on the network. Its low value suggests the asset is undervalued.
In the same phase are the Balanced Price at level 20 and the Delta Price at level 12. Both of these fair value models historically indicate a zone where the asset is considered oversold. The MVRV Z-Score has dropped to 6, which in statistical terms signals a strong deviation of the market from its baseline valuation.
Also classified as bottom are the Long-Term Supply MVRV at 10, the base MVRV ratio at 19, and the Realized Price at 19. The latter reflects the average purchase price of all coins on the network, and the market price approaching it is a powerful psychological and technical support level.
Extreme Values and Bearish "Laggards"
Metrics that have fallen to zero deserve special attention. The Percentage Supply in Profit and the Percentage UTXOs in Profit are at level 0. This means that the vast majority of holders are at breakeven or in a slight loss—a classic sign of capitulation and the end of a sell-off.
However, not all indicators have reached the bottom. Three out of 17 are still in the bearish phase: LTS NUPL (Long-Term Holder Unrealized Profit/Loss) at 33, the Market Cap to Thermocap Ratio at 39, and the overall NUPL at 37. These indicators still signal that the market as a whole is in a zone of unrealized profit, albeit close to zero. NUPL, reflecting the overall profitability of the market, typically reaches its bottom during the deepest bearish phases when panic is at its peak.
Monthly Dynamics and Conclusions
The thirty-day dynamics of most metrics are negative or neutral, confirming a gradual slide towards the bottom. The steepest declines over the month were seen in LTS NUPL (-3 points), as well as NUPL and the Thermocap Ratio (-2 points each). Notably, some short-term metrics, such as STS NUPL, showed significant growth (+9 points), which may indicate early signs of accumulation by speculators.
The convergence of 14 out of 17 indicators in the bottom zone is undoubtedly a very strong signal. It suggests that the fundamental valuation of the Bitcoin network has reached levels that historically preceded the start of new bullish cycles. Nevertheless, the market is still awaiting confirmation from bearish metrics, which have not yet reached their extremes. I believe the probability of forming a long-term bottom is extremely high, but a final reversal may still require some time and, possibly, a final wave of capitulation.