The past week was a time of recovery and key regulatory shifts for the crypto market. Bitcoin managed to recoup the losses from late June, while in Europe, the MiCA transitional period ended, permanently changing the rules of the game for crypto businesses. Meanwhile, the Russian regulator finally announced specific dates for implementing a new legal framework for digital currencies.
Bitcoin bounces back: +4.6% for the week amid macroeconomic uncertainty
The leading cryptocurrency showed a confident recovery, rebounding from a local low around $57,700. The key catalyst for growth was statements by Fed Governor Kevin Warsh about persistently high inflation, which spurred demand for safe-haven assets, including Bitcoin. By Saturday, the rate reached $63,300, but then corrected to $62,700.
Notably, altcoins showed even more impressive dynamics. Solana gained 12.7%, Ethereum 11.7%, and the Hyperliquid token rose by over 10%. This indicates a flow of liquidity from Bitcoin into high-beta assets, a classic sign of risk appetite in the market. However, the Fear and Greed Index remains in the "extreme fear" zone at 23 points, indicating persistent investor nervousness.
Outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs continued for the eighth consecutive week, totaling $526.6 million. Nevertheless, on July 2, these products recorded an inflow of $221.7 million. This could signal the beginning of a trend reversal. Bitcoin's dominance decreased from 58.1% to 57.9%, while Ethereum's share rose from 9.2% to 9.8%.
Europe: MiCA comes into full effect, unlicensed business is illegal
July 1, 2026, became a landmark date for the crypto industry in the European Union. The transitional period for the MiCA regulation expired, and now all companies that failed to obtain a license must cease servicing clients from the EU. According to ESMA, at the end of the transitional period, there were 244 authorized providers on the register. Among the approved platforms with notable liquidity are Kraken, Coinbase, and Bitstamp.
The European Commission has already begun reviewing MiCA, launching public consultations. This indicates that the regulator recognizes the need to adapt legislation to rapidly changing market conditions. For market participants, this is a signal: the era of "gray" zones in the EU is over, but the regulator is open to dialogue.
Russia: Crypto regulation may start on September 1
First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of Russia Vladimir Chistyukhin, speaking at the Bank of Russia's Financial Congress, outlined specific timelines for launching the new regime. The law on regulating the crypto market could come into effect on September 1, 2026. After that, a transitional period will begin, lasting until July 1, 2027. By this time, companies will need to obtain licenses and restructure their internal processes.
First operations under the new regime are expected by the end of this year or the beginning of next. This is a positive signal for the market: clear deadlines reduce uncertainty and allow businesses to plan their activities. However, the key question remains the content of the law itself and its by-laws.
Ecosystem news: Ethereum Institutional, StarkNet quantum protection, and other events
In the Ethereum ecosystem, an independent non-profit organization, Ethereum Institutional, was launched to promote the network among banks and institutional investors. This is an important step for legitimizing the second-largest cryptocurrency in the eyes of the traditional financial sector.
StarkWare presented a roadmap for transitioning StarkNet to post-quantum cryptography, making the network one of the most protected against future threats. JPMorgan criticized Strategy's decision to sell Bitcoin, and the company's valuation fell below the value of its Bitcoin reserves for the first time.
My view: The market shows signs of a bottom, but full recovery will depend on the macroeconomic situation and regulatory clarity. Bitcoin's bounce above $60,000 is a positive signal, but for confident growth, it will need to overcome resistance around $65,000. Despite its strictness, the European MiCA creates a predictable environment for institutions, which will benefit the market in the long term.