The past week was marked by a confident recovery of Bitcoin, the final chord of the MiCA transitional period in the European Union, and specific timelines for implementing crypto regulation in Russia. The market is showing signs of life, but without excessive optimism.
Bitcoin Recovers June Losses
The leading cryptocurrency, which experienced its worst month in four years, started July with a strong bounce from a local low near $57,700. On July 1, the rate surpassed the $60,000 mark, and on Saturday, July 4, reached $63,300 on Binance, before correcting to $62,700. The weekly gain amounted to 4.6%.
The upward momentum was supported by statements from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh about persistently high inflation in the US, which traditionally pushes investors toward safe-haven assets. Notably, Bitcoin's growth continued even amid sell-offs in chipmaker stocks, indicating partial decoupling.
Altcoins in the top 10 showed even more impressive dynamics: Solana gained 12.7%, Ethereum — 11.7%, and the Hyperliquid token rose by over 10%. The total market capitalization recovered from $2.07 trillion to $2.17 trillion, but Bitcoin's dominance decreased from 58.1% to 57.9%, while Ethereum's share jumped from 9.2% to 9.8%.
Despite the positive price dynamics, sentiment remains cautious. The Fear and Greed Index, although rising from 18 to 23 points, is still in the "extreme fear" zone. Outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs continue for the eighth consecutive week — minus $526.6 million, although on July 2, products attracted $221.7 million in a single session. Ethereum-based funds also recorded an outflow of $13.7 million.
MiCA: Transitional Period Ends, a New Era Begins
On July 1, 2026, the transitional period for cryptocurrency platforms under the MiCA regulation expired in the European Union. Companies that failed to obtain a license must cease servicing European clients. According to the ESMA register, by the end of the period, there were 244 authorized crypto service providers in the EU and EEA, including Kraken, Coinbase, and Bitstamp.
The European Commission has already initiated a review of the regulation, launching public and targeted consultations to assess its relevance. This signals that the regulatory architecture will adapt to the rapidly changing market.
Russia: Crypto Regulation from September 1
First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of Russia Vladimir Chistyukhin stated at the Bank of Russia Financial Congress that the law on crypto market regulation could come into force on September 1, 2026. After that, market participants will be given a transitional period until July 1, 2027, to obtain licenses and restructure processes. From this date, administrative and criminal liability for illegal operations should come into effect.
The first operations under the new regime are expected by the end of this year or the beginning of next. This is an important step for legalizing the industry in Russia, but the timelines appear ambitious.
Other Significant Events
- In the Ethereum ecosystem, an independent non-profit organization, Ethereum Institutional, was launched to promote the network among banks and asset managers.
- Strategy's valuation fell below the value of its Bitcoin reserves for the first time, drawing criticism from JPMorgan.
- StarkWare presented a roadmap to protect StarkNet from quantum threats, leveraging the architectural advantage of STARK proofs.
- The Ministry of Digital Development will become the sole AI regulator in Russia, Meta introduced an AI for decoding brain activity, and Loopring announced the closure of its DEX.
My comment: The market is showing signs of a bottom, but sustained outflows from ETFs and a low Fear and Greed Index indicate a lack of confidence among institutions. The implementation of MiCA in the EU is a double-edged sword: on one hand, it legitimizes the industry; on the other, it creates barriers to entry. Russian regulation, if implemented on time, could become a catalyst for the local market, but the key driver will remain the macroeconomic environment and Fed actions.