The Bitcoin market is exhibiting a rare analytical pattern. 14 out of 17 key on-chain indicators have simultaneously transitioned into the "Bottom" phase. Such a massive alignment of signals is an extraordinary phenomenon and deserves the closest attention from the professional community.
Analyzing the current metric panel, we see that the vast majority of assessment tools have reached levels historically associated with price bottoms. The adjusted MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio stands at 19. The Balanced Price and Delta Price are also fixed in the "bottom" zone with values of 20 and 12, respectively. This suggests that, according to these fair value models, the asset is currently undervalued.
The MVRV Z-Score has dropped to 6, which statistically indicates a significant deviation of the market price from the average acquisition price of all coins in the network. The Long-Term Supply MVRV stands at 10, and the Realized Price is at 19, reflecting the average cost basis of all bitcoins in circulation.
Particular attention should be paid to the extreme values of some metrics. The Percentage Supply in Profit and Percentage UTXOs in Profit have fallen to zero. This indicates that the vast majority of coins are near the breakeven point—a classic sign of seller exhaustion.
Bearish Signals and Monthly Dynamics
However, not all indicators have reached the bottom. Three out of 17 metrics are still in the bearish phase: LTS NUPL (Long-Term Holder Unrealized Profit/Loss) at 33, the Market Cap To Thermocap Ratio at 39, and the overall NUPL at 37. These indicators suggest that, while the market is generally close to the capitulation zone, some long-term holders are still locking in unrealized profits.
The dynamics over the last 30 days confirm the trend of sliding toward the bottom. Most metrics showed negative or neutral movement. The strongest declines were seen in LTS NUPL (-3 points), NUPL, and the Thermocap Ratio (-2 points each). At the same time, short-term metrics such as the Short-Term Supply Realized Price (STS) and Short-Term Supply MVRV increased by 3 points, while STS NUPL showed a notable jump of 9 points, which may signal the first signs of a local reversal.
My professional opinion: The alignment of 14 out of 17 indicators in the bottom zone is a powerful analytical signal that cannot be ignored. Historically, such convergence has preceded the formation of significant price bottoms. However, the key factor that will determine further developments is the transition of the remaining three bearish metrics into the "bottom" phase. If this happens, we will witness one of the most convincing trend reversal signals in recent years.