The cryptocurrency market is on the verge of a serious test. An analysis of the current macroeconomic picture and long-term cycles of the US stock market indicates that Bitcoin could become the main victim of a potential reversal on American exchanges. A series of independent observations form a troubling chain: from the century-long stock market cycle to record capital inflows into US stocks and BTC's critical dependence on their performance.
The Century-Long Stock Market Cycle: Euphoria at the Finish Line
The S&P 500 index has shown a recurring pattern over the past hundred years: a technology boom lasts about 24–25 years, followed by a decade of stagnation. Historical examples are telling: the electronics and automation boom starting in 1942 brought a 2536% gain over 24 years, followed by 9 years of sideways movement. Similarly, the PC and internet boom starting in 1975 lasted 25 years and delivered 2665%, again giving way to a nine-year stagnation.
The current cycle, which began in 2009 with the era of smartphones, e-commerce, and AI, should logically end around 2033. This means the bull market still has about seven years left, but as history shows, the steepest growth segments occur at the end. The key takeaway: such markets die not from old age, but from euphoria.
Record Capital Inflow into US Stocks
Simultaneously, there is unprecedented demand for US stocks from global investors. The cumulative inflow from global investment funds since the start of the year has reached about 2.5% of their total assets under management. This figure has more than doubled since May and significantly exceeds the 2002–2025 average, which saw an outflow of about 0.3% by this date.
The current pace of inflows has already surpassed the full annual result typical for the average half of the years since 2002. Demand for US stocks can be described as unprecedented, providing strong support for the stock market in the short term.
Bitcoin as a Hostage of the Stock Market
However, this is precisely where the main threat to Bitcoin lies. The stability of all commodity and crypto assets directly depends on the continued growth of US securities. If the stock market fails to hold above current levels, Bitcoin will likely find itself closer to $10,000. For comparison: over the year to July 4, the total return of the S&P 500, gold, and copper rose by about 21–25%, while Bitcoin lost around 40%.
This shows that the cryptocurrency is already acting as a lagging asset even against a strong stock market. At the first signs of a sentiment shift, BTC will become the most vulnerable link. Any reversal in the stock market will hit the cryptocurrency hardest, and Bitcoin's current underperformance makes it particularly vulnerable.
My analysis: the situation resembles a classic liquidity trap. The record capital inflow into US stocks creates an illusion of stability, but it is precisely at such moments that the market is most sensitive to external shocks. Bitcoin, having lost its correlation with traditional assets on the upside while retaining it on the downside, risks becoming a "risk-off" sentiment indicator. Investors should prepare for a scenario where BTC tests levels of $10,000–$12,000 amid a 20-30% correction in the S&P 500.