The Bitcoin market is exhibiting a rare analytical event: 14 out of 17 key on-chain indicators are simultaneously pointing to the formation of a price bottom. This is not just a broad correlation of metrics, but a unique convergence of signals that, in my observation, only occurs at moments of complete alignment of fundamental factors.
Leading analyst known under the pseudonym KillaXBT has recorded this anomalous coincidence. He notes that at previous market peaks he held a bearish view, but now, at the lows, he has taken an unequivocally bullish stance. Such a data-driven strategic reversal deserves close attention.
The "Bottom" Phase: What the Metrics Show
The vast majority of metrics on the indicator panel are in the "Bottom" phase. Among them is the adjusted MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio with a value of 19. This indicator compares the current market capitalization with the capitalization based on the price of the last coin movement, and the current level historically corresponds to an undervalued zone.
In the same phase are the Balanced Price at level 20 and the Delta Price at level 12. These fair value models have historically indicated zones where the asset was considered undervalued. The MVRV Z-Score, which shows the statistical deviation of the market price from the average purchase price, has dropped to 6. This is a strong signal that the market is deep in oversold territory.
Also classified as bottom are the Long-Term Supply MVRV at 10, the Base MVRV ratio at 19, and the Realized Price at 19. The latter reflects the average purchase price of all coins in the network, and its current value suggests that the market as a whole is near the breakeven point.
Particularly noteworthy are the extremely low values of the Percentage Supply in Profit and the Percentage UTXOs in Profit, which have fallen to 0. This indicates that virtually all coins are at or near the breakeven zone, a classic sign of capitulation and bottom formation.
Other price benchmarks remain in the bottom phase: the Long-Term Supply Realized Price (LTS) at 6, the Short-Term Supply Realized Price (STS) at 24, the Short-Term Supply MVRV at 15, the STS NUPL (unrealized profit/loss of short-term holders) at 13, and the Top Price model at 14.
Bearish Signals and Monthly Dynamics
However, not all indicators have reached the bottom. Three of the 17 indicators are still in the bearish phase. These are the LTS NUPL (unrealized profit/loss of long-term holders) with a value of 33, the Market Cap To Thermocap Ratio at 39, and the Net Unrealized Loss/Profit (NUPL) at 37. NUPL values close to zero historically indicate zones where previous sell-offs exhausted rather than deepened.
The dynamics over the last 30 days for most metrics are negative or neutral, confirming a gradual slide toward the bottom. The steepest decline over the month was in LTS NUPL, down by 3 points, while NUPL and the Thermocap ratio each fell by 2 points. At the same time, some indicators rose over the month: the Short-Term Supply Realized Price (STS) and Short-Term Supply MVRV each gained 3 points, while STS NUPL showed the most notable increase, rising by 9 points.
From my perspective, the current convergence of 14 out of 17 indicators is not just a statistical anomaly. It is a powerful fundamental signal that the market is close to exhausting selling pressure. The remaining bearish metrics, especially those related to long-term holders, indicate that the capitulation process is not yet fully complete. However, if the dynamics of recent weeks persist, we may witness the formation of a significant price low that will serve as a launching point for a new bullish cycle. All that remains is to wait for confirmation from the three remaining bearish indicators, which could "flip" in the near future.