Several independent analytical observations indicate that bitcoin could become the main victim of a potential reversal in the US stock market. The overall picture consists of three key elements: the century-long stock market cycle, record capital inflows into US stocks, and the growing correlation of BTC with the S&P 500's dynamics.
The Century-Long Cycle: The Final Phase of the Bull Market
Analysis of long-term patterns in the S&P 500 index shows that technology booms last about 24–25 years, followed by a decade of stagnation. The current cycle, which began in 2009 with the era of smartphones and e-commerce, would logically end around 2033. This means the bull market still has about seven years left, but its most aggressive phase—the euphoric one—traditionally occurs at the end. It is at this point that markets are most vulnerable to sharp crashes.
Record Capital Inflows: A Precursor to Overheating?
Global investment fund inflows into US stocks since the start of the year have reached 2.5% of their total assets under management. This figure has more than doubled since May and significantly exceeds the 2002–2025 average, when a similar period saw outflows of about 0.3%. The current pace has already surpassed the full-year result typical for the average half of years since 2002. Such unprecedented demand is a classic sign of the late cycle phase, when capital rushes into assets with maximum returns, ignoring risks.
Bitcoin as a Hostage of the Stock Market
Analysts emphasize that the resilience of all commodity and crypto assets directly depends on the continued growth of US securities. If the stock market fails to hold above current levels, bitcoin will likely fall to around $10,000, gold will retreat to $3,000 per ounce, and WTI oil will drop below $50 per barrel. Notably, over the past year, BTC has lost about 40%, while the S&P 500, gold, and copper have shown gains of 21–25%. This confirms that the cryptocurrency is already acting as a lagging asset even against the backdrop of a strong stock market.
Comparing this data, we see a clear logic: provided that the century-long cycle has entered a euphoric phase and record capital inflows support growth, bitcoin may move upward in the short term, following stocks. However, any reversal in the stock market will hit the cryptocurrency the hardest—its current underperformance makes BTC especially vulnerable at the first sign of a sentiment shift.
My expert opinion: The market is at a critical point. As long as capital continues to pour into US stocks, bitcoin may show local rallies. But as soon as profit-taking begins in traditional assets, BTC risks becoming the "scapegoat" due to its low liquidity and high volatility. The $10,000 level is not a fantasy but a realistic scenario if systemic risk materializes in the stock market.