The week was rich in events: the first cryptocurrency confidently recouped June's losses, the full version of the MiCA regulation came into force in Europe, and Russia finally set specific dates for implementing crypto regulation. Let's break down the key trends.
Bitcoin Recovers from Local Bottom
The worst month in four years is behind us. On July 1, Bitcoin bounced from a two-year low around $57,700 and confidently surpassed the $60,000 mark. The key catalyst was comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh about persistently high inflation in the US, which fueled demand for safe-haven assets.
The upward trend continued even amid sell-offs in chipmaker stocks. By Saturday, July 4, the rate reached $63,300 on Binance, before correcting to $62,700. The weekly gain was 4.6%. However, many altcoins showed more impressive dynamics: Solana (+12.7%), Ethereum (+11.7%), and the Hyperliquid token (+10%) significantly outperformed the flagship.
Outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs continued for the eighth consecutive week, reaching $526.6 million. However, on July 2, products attracted $221.7 million in a single session, indicating mixed institutional sentiment. Ethereum funds also saw outflows of $13.7 million. The Fear and Greed Index remains in the extreme fear zone, rising from 18 to 23 points. Total market capitalization recovered to $2.17 trillion, with Bitcoin dominance decreasing from 58.1% to 57.9%, while Ethereum's share rose from 9.2% to 9.8%.
MiCA: A New Era for Crypto Business in the EU
On July 1, 2026, the transitional period for cryptocurrency platforms under the MiCA regulation expired. According to a statement from the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), companies that failed to obtain a license must cease servicing clients from the EU. Previously, the transitional period allowed firms operating under national rules before December 30, 2024, to continue activities until July 1, 2026, or until they obtained or were denied a license.
By the end of the transitional period, ESMA's register listed 244 authorized crypto service providers. In recent days, several companies in Italy, France, Malta, and Spain received licenses. Among the approved platforms with notable spot liquidity are Kraken, Coinbase, and Bitstamp. The European Commission has already begun reviewing the regulation, launching public and targeted consultations to assess its relevance.
Russia: Crypto Regulation Gets a Date
First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of Russia Vladimir Chistyukhin stated that the law on regulating the crypto market could come into force on September 1. After that, market participants will be given time to prepare until July 1, 2027 — a transitional period for collecting documents, obtaining licenses, and restructuring processes. From this date, administrative and criminal liability for illegal cryptocurrency operations should come into effect. Chistyukhin expects the first operations under the new regime by the end of this year or the beginning of next year.
Ethereum Ecosystem and Quantum Protection
A non-profit organization, Ethereum Institutional, has been launched within the Ethereum ecosystem to promote the network among banks and asset managers. The operational team includes David Walsh, Marius Smith, and Matthew Dawson, with anchor sponsors being BitMine Immersion Technologies, Sharplink, and ConsenSys CEO Joseph Lubin.
StarkWare has presented a roadmap for protecting StarkNet from quantum threats. The plan includes replacing dependencies on elliptic curves, implementing post-quantum signatures, and migration tools for contracts. Developers call this roadmap the "strongest" in the industry, highlighting the architectural advantage of STARK proofs based on hash functions.
My analysis: The market is clearly experiencing a consolidation phase after the May crash. Bitcoin's bounce above $62,500 is a positive signal, but ETF outflows and extreme fear suggest investors are not yet ready for aggressive position building. MiCA brings long-awaited clarity for Europe, but stricter requirements could lead to a temporary outflow of liquidity from less prepared platforms. In Russia, the main question is whether subordinate legislation will be adopted before September; otherwise, the risks of a prolonged transitional period remain.