The Bitcoin market is demonstrating a rare level of analytical consensus. As many as 14 out of 17 key on-chain indicators have simultaneously transitioned into the "Bottom" phase. This is not just broad agreement among metrics, but a unique alignment of signals that was last observed only during the formation of significant price lows.
Among the metrics confirming the bottom is the adjusted MVRV ratio (market value to realized value) with a value of 19. It shows that the current price of Bitcoin has nearly equaled the average price of the last movement of all coins on the network. A similar position is held by the Balanced Price at level 20 and the Delta Price at level 12 — fair value models below which the asset has historically been considered undervalued.
The critical MVRV Z-Score indicator has dropped to the 6 mark. This metric statistically demonstrates how far the market has deviated from its baseline valuation, and its current value points to a deep oversold zone. Also classified as bottom are the long-term MVRV supply (10), the base MVRV ratio (19), and the Realized Price — 19, reflecting the average purchase price of all coins on the network.
Metrics showing extremely low values deserve special attention. The Percentage Supply in Profit and the Percentage UTXOs in Profit have fallen to zero. This means that nearly all coins are near the breakeven zone. The market has passed the capitulation stage and is frozen, awaiting a catalyst.
However, not all indicators have reached the bottom. Three out of 17 metrics are still in the bearish phase: LTS NUPL (unrealized profit/loss of long-term holders) with a value of 33, the Market Cap To Thermocap Ratio — 39, and the overall NUPL — 37. The NUPL indicator reflects whether the market as a whole is in profit or loss, and values close to zero indicate a zone where past sell-offs have more often fizzled out rather than deepened.
Over the last 30 days, the dynamics for most metrics have been negative or neutral, indicating a gradual slide toward the bottom. The steepest monthly decline was in LTS NUPL — down by 3 points, as well as NUPL and the Thermocap ratio — each down by 2 points. Meanwhile, some indicators rose: the short-term supply realized price (STS) gained 3 points, the short-term MVRV supply also gained 3 points, and STS NUPL showed the most notable increase — up by 9 points.
Analyst's opinion: what does this mean for the market?
Such a massive alignment of signals is rare. It indicates that the market is close to forming a price bottom. However, the remaining bearish metrics require confirmation. If they also transition into the bottom phase in the near future, we will have one of the strongest reversal signals in recent years. Investors should closely monitor the dynamics of LTS NUPL and the overall NUPL — their transition into the Bottom zone will act as a trigger for the start of a new bullish cycle.