In June 2026, the decentralized prediction platform Kalshi recorded an all-time high in trading volume — $9.4 billion. This figure is double the result of its closest competitor, Polymarket, which attracted only $4.3 billion over the same period.
The main driver of this explosive growth was the FIFA 2026 World Cup, which kicked off on June 11. The tournament, held simultaneously in three countries — the USA, Canada, and Mexico — generated unprecedented interest from users looking to profit from sports outcomes.
It is worth noting that Kalshi, unlike Polymarket, operates in strict compliance with U.S. law and holds a license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This makes it more attractive to institutional investors who prefer to avoid regulatory risks.
Sports events, especially large-scale ones like the 2026 World Cup, traditionally boost activity on prediction markets, but Kalshi's record-breaking lead over Polymarket indicates a shift in user preferences toward regulated platforms. In the coming months, as the tournament's final stage approaches, further growth in trading volumes can be expected.
Expert commentary: The decentralized prediction market is entering a mature phase where regulation and trust are becoming key factors. Kalshi proves that even in the crypto industry, an institutional approach can outperform decentralized competitors.