OpenAI and Anthropic are demonstrating impressive growth rates in revenue and valuations, but behind this facade lies a critical vulnerability: their future directly depends on access to computing power, data center financing, and regulatory decisions. These are not just business risks—they are fundamental constraints that could reshape the entire artificial intelligence industry landscape.
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar recently revealed a key correlation: from 2023 to 2025, the company's computing capacity grew from 0.2 GW to 1.9 GW, while annual recurring revenue rose from $2 billion to over $20 billion. This is direct evidence that computing has become the most scarce resource in AI. The company has already shifted from dependence on a single provider to a diversified supplier ecosystem, but even this does not eliminate all constraints.
Anthropic, in turn, raised $65 billion in a Series H round at a $965 billion valuation, with its annual revenue exceeding $47 billion. The funds will go toward expanding computing capacity for Claude, but this is just the tip of the iceberg.
The Price of Infrastructure: Trillions of Dollars at Stake
Scaling advanced models is becoming a capital-intensive task not only for developers but for the entire supply chain. Goldman Sachs Research analysts forecast that the four largest hyperscalers—Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet—will spend $5.3 trillion on capital expenditures in 2025–2030. Notably, OpenAI and Anthropic are not included in this selection, highlighting their dependence on external infrastructure.
The Bank for International Settlements, in its 2026 annual economic report, warned that the five largest cloud infrastructure providers will spend over $1 trillion on AI-related capital expenditures in 2025–2026. These commitments are already outpacing the companies' profits and free cash flow, forcing them to raise debt financing. If monetization expectations are not met, this could trigger a sharp reduction in investment and impact the entire sector.
Regulatory Risk: When Government Becomes an Unpredictable Partner
Beyond the cost of computing, major AI companies face the risk of sudden restrictions from authorities. In June, Anthropic was forced to halt access to its Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models due to a directive from the U.S. government under export controls. Notably, the authorities' letter contained no specific details about the security issue, suggesting a possible bypass of protective mechanisms.
That same month, the Donald Trump administration asked OpenAI not to release GPT-5.6 broadly immediately due to security concerns. The company was forced to first provide the model to a limited number of clients. Although the Department of Commerce lifted restrictions on Anthropic's models on June 30, this episode became part of the company's ongoing conflict with U.S. authorities.
The situation with the Pentagon deserves special attention. In February 2026, the U.S. Army used Claude in an operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, and Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth called the developer a "supply chain risk." Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei stated that the company would prefer not to cooperate with the Pentagon rather than agree to the use of technologies that could "undermine rather than protect democratic values."
Going Public: A High-Stakes Game
Despite all the risks, OpenAI and Anthropic continue to explore opportunities for entering the public market. The former filed a confidential IPO application on June 8, the latter a week earlier. Both companies emphasized that the offering parameters have not been determined.
For investors, the key question will be not only the companies' valuations but also the economics of scaling: how much does it cost to sustain user growth, how quickly do data centers pay off, how stable are financing channels, and can regulators restrict access to flagship products?
Expert opinion: Infrastructure and regulatory risks are not temporary difficulties but a new reality for the AI sector. Companies that can diversify their sources of computing power and build constructive dialogue with regulators will gain a significant competitive advantage. Those that fail to do so risk being trapped by their own growth.