A Polymarket platform user under the pseudonym coldsway suffered catastrophic losses of $11.63 million in just ten days. An analysis of his activity shows that all losses were recorded on bets related to the 2026 FIFA World Cup matches. The trader placed a total of 15 bets, 11 of which were losing, resulting in a success rate of only 26.7%.

Detailed Breakdown of Losses

Coldsway's total trading volume reached an impressive $48.19 million. However, only four positions generated a profit of $4.23 million, while the remaining 11 bets resulted in net losses of $15.86 million. Notably, each of these losing positions closed with a total loss of the invested amount.

Key failures for the trader:

  • July 4 — Bet against Morocco winning: Loss of $4.95 million.
  • June 28 — Bet against Canada winning: Loss of $3.1 million.
  • June 27 — Bet on Portugal winning: Loss of $1.95 million.

The most painful blow was the prediction of a "No" outcome in the match on July 4, which completely burned $4.95 million. A similar fate befell the positions against Canada and on Portugal winning.

Rare Successes: What Worked

Despite the overall negative trend, a few successful bets partially softened the blow. The most profitable was a bet on a draw in the Australia vs. Egypt match. An investment of $689,000 yielded $1.12 million in net profit, demonstrating a return of 162.4%.

Additional income was generated by:

  • Spread on the Colombia national team (-1.5) — $1.07 million.
  • Croatia's victory on June 27 — $1.07 million.
  • Bet against Egypt winning on July 3 — $963,000.

The total profit of $4.23 million was nearly four times less than the total losses, which led to a final balance deep in the red.

My analysis: This case is a stark example of how a lack of discipline and excessive confidence in one's own predictions can destroy even a large capital. Polymarket is not a casino, but a prediction market where success requires cold calculation, not emotional decisions. Coldsway likely tried to "win back" losses, but instead only deepened them. A lesson for all traders: risk management is not an option, but a necessity.