The story of one of the most high-profile fiascos in the crypto betting market is unfolding right now. A user under the nickname coldsway recorded a net loss of $11.63 million in just ten days by making predictions on 2026 FIFA World Cup matches on the Polymarket platform. This is a clear example of how even large capital can be destroyed in the absence of discipline and a risk management system.
My analysis of this wallet's transactions shows that coldsway's total trading turnover over the specified period reached an impressive $48.19 million. However, out of 15 placed bets, only four turned out to be profitable. The success rate of trades was a modest 26.7%. Eleven losing positions resulted in a loss of $15.86 million, while four winning ones brought in only $4.23 million in profit. Notably, each losing bet was closed with a total loss of the invested amount.
Statistics of the rout: major blows to the budget
The main blow to the deposit was a bet against Morocco's victory on July 4. The prediction for a "No" outcome cost the trader $4.95 million, which was completely lost. Serious damage was also caused by bets against Canada on June 28 (a loss of $3.1 million) and a bet on Portugal on June 27 (a loss of $1.95 million). All these positions closed with a zero result.
The rare wins slightly softened the overall negative trend but did not help save the situation. The most successful prediction was a bet on a draw in the Australia vs. Egypt match. An investment of $689,000 yielded $1.12 million in net profit, demonstrating a return of 162.4%. Additional income came from a bet on Colombia's handicap (-1.5), Croatia's victory on June 27, and a bet against Egypt's win on July 3. The total income amounted to $4.23 million, which is almost four times less than the total losses.
My analyst's comment: The coldsway story is a classic example of "gambling behavior" using decentralized platforms. The complete lack of hedging and "all-or-nothing" bets in 73% of cases is not a strategy, but gambling. Polymarket and similar protocols only amplify this effect, creating an illusion of control but not protecting against human psychology. Serious work in such markets requires a clear capital management plan, not hope for luck.