The Bitcoin market is once again showing a worrying picture: active investors, meaning those who are actually participating in trading and moving coins, are on average at a 20% loss. This conclusion is based on an analysis of the AVIV (Active Value to Investor Value) indicator, which is currently entrenched in the depreciation zone at around 0.8.
Why Standard Metrics Don't Work
For an objective assessment of the situation, I use the True Market Mean (TMM) indicator, which excludes long-inactive and potentially lost coins from calculations. Unlike traditional average prices, TMM focuses specifically on the active supply. Currently, TMM is estimated at around $76,700, and this level acts as strong resistance. It was here in May that many holders chose to break even, unwilling to lock in losses.
Depth of Loss: Not the Bottom, But a Signal
The current 20% loss for the active group is already serious, but as history shows, it is far from the limit. In previous bear cycles, the AVIV ratio dropped to 0.5–0.6, corresponding to losses of 40–50%. However, this does not mean we will necessarily see a repeat of those scenarios. The scale of Bitcoin adoption in this cycle has grown significantly, and a reversal does not necessarily require reaching extreme panic levels.
Despite the influx of institutional money and the launch of ETFs, Bitcoin's fundamental cyclicality remains unchanged. As I have repeatedly noted, billions of dollars do not override the market's own rules. In the current conditions, the only sensible strategy is to maintain humility before the cycles and avoid excessive risk.
My expert opinion: The market is in a phase of revaluation, where active participants are suffering significant losses. Until AVIV shows a reversal or TMM is broken to the upside, I recommend maintaining a conservative approach and not trying to catch the bottom. The cycle has not yet had its final say.