The current correction in the Bitcoin market has not affected all wallets equally. While long-term "dormant" addresses may remain in profit, the situation is noticeably more difficult for active market participants. On-chain analytics data indicates that the average unrealized loss on active coins is around 20%.
Why Looking at "Everyone" is a Mistake
Classic metrics that assess total market capitalization or average entry price can be misleading. This is because a significant portion of Bitcoins have been sitting idle for years. Some of these coins are likely irretrievably lost, and their purchase price has long been irrelevant to market realities.
To get an objective picture, analysts use the True Market Mean (TMM) indicator. This metric excludes all "dormant" and illiquid coins from calculations, focusing solely on the active supply. Currently, the TMM is estimated at around $76,700, acting as a key resistance level. It was at this point in May that many investors chose to break even, unwilling to hold positions any further.
The AVIV Ratio: Zone of Depreciation
Based on the TMM, a more nuanced indicator is calculated — the AVIV ratio (Active Value to Investor Value). It shows how much the current market valuation of the active supply differs from its cost basis.
The current AVIV value hovers around the 0.8 mark. This means the market values active coins at 20% below their average purchase price. In other words, active investors are, on average, sitting "in the red" by one-fifth of their entry point.
This Isn't the Bottom Yet — But It's an Alarming Signal
It is important to understand the context. In previous bear cycles, AVIV dropped to levels of 0.5–0.6, corresponding to losses of 40–50%. The current 20% is serious, but not critical by historical standards. This suggests the market has not yet gone through a full phase of capitulation.
Nevertheless, it would be naive to assume that the influx of institutional capital and ETFs have "cancelled" Bitcoin's cyclicality. No matter how many billions flow into the market, Bitcoin continues to dictate its own rules. Cyclicality has not disappeared, and the current state of active holders is direct proof of this.
Cryptalist's Comment: Until we see AVIV at levels of 0.6 and below, it is premature to talk about full capitulation and the formation of a global bottom. However, the current situation is a powerful signal that there are no more "easy money" in the market. Maintaining humility in the face of cycles is the best strategy in this phase.