The average loss for active Bitcoin investors has reached 20%. The key indicator AVIV (Active Value to Investor Value) points to the market being in a zone of depreciation. This is a serious signal for those tracking "smart money" sentiment.
Market analysis requires a more nuanced approach than simply evaluating all holders. I focus on the True Market Mean (TMM) indicator — the true average market price. This indicator excludes coins that have not moved for a long time from the calculation. Their base price is no longer relevant, and some of these coins are even considered lost. TMM cuts out the "dead weight" and shows the real picture of the active supply.
What Does True Market Mean Show?
Currently, TMM is estimated at approximately $76,700 and acts as a resistance level. This became evident back in May, when many investors chose to exit the market without a loss rather than continue holding positions. The combination of TMM and AVIV (Active Value to Investor Value) is now critical. AVIV is hovering around the 0.8 mark, signaling a depreciation zone.
A value of 0.8 means that the active group of investors is sitting on an average loss of about 20%. This is a noticeable level, but it is not yet comparable to past bear markets.
Why This Isn't the Bottom Yet?
In previous cycles, the AVIV ratio dropped to 0.5–0.6, corresponding to losses of 40–50%. That is, the current situation is twice as mild. However, for a Bitcoin reversal, it is not necessary to reach such extreme depreciation values. This is related to the scale of adoption the asset has seen in the current cycle.
Despite the influx of institutions and ETFs, Bitcoin's basic cyclicality has not changed. The market still dictates its own rules, regardless of the billions of dollars being poured in. In such a situation, investors should maintain humility before cycles and not expect that a "new era" will cancel old patterns.
My conclusion: A 20% loss is not a catastrophe, but rather an "average temperature in the hospital." However, the AVIV signal cannot be ignored. If the market does not find support soon, pressure on active holders will only increase, bringing us closer to deeper oversold zones.