The decentralized prediction industry is experiencing a historic surge. The total betting volume on the winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on the two largest platforms—Polymarket and Kalshi—has already exceeded $4.98 billion. This is a clear indicator of how crypto prediction markets are gradually displacing traditional bookmakers, offering users transparency and instant settlements.
Polymarket Dominance
Polymarket remains the leader in liquidity volume, with the total pool on the "2026 World Cup Winner" market reaching $3.97 billion. The absolute favorite here is the French national team, with a 33% probability of winning—its chances have increased by 16 percentage points recently. Argentina is in second place (18%, up by 4 points), and England rounds out the top three with 15%.
Notably, in terms of daily trading volume, the leading teams are not among the top favorites. The highest activity was recorded for the USA—$135.76 million per day. Morocco is in second place ($132.59 million), and Norway is third ($108.37 million). This suggests that traders are actively hedging positions and playing on odds, rather than simply betting on the winner.
Kalshi: Synchronization with Polymarket
The regulated platform Kalshi, operating under US jurisdiction, shows an almost identical picture. Its market for the 2026 World Cup winner is valued at $1.01 billion. France also leads here with a probability of 34.2% (a decrease of 0.5% over the day). Argentina—18.4%, England—14.2%. The latter recorded a sharp jump of 7.7 points.
Spain holds steady at 13%, while Portugal and Norway receive 6.4% and 5.4%, respectively.
The alignment of quotes on two independent platforms is a powerful signal for the market. This means that the current balance of power is not speculative but based on real demand and analysis.
Further dynamics will directly depend on the course of the tournament itself. If France confirms its favorite status in the group stage, we could see a sharp shift in liquidity in its favor. However, high volatility in prediction markets is normal, and any sensational results can instantly rewrite the odds.
My analysis: Prediction markets are becoming a full-fledged tool for institutional players. The $5 billion volume is just the beginning. If the current trend continues, by the final of the 2026 World Cup, we could see figures comparable to global exchange volumes for individual assets. Those who still consider Polymarket and Kalshi "niche platforms" are in for an unpleasant surprise.