The Bitcoin market is sending an alarming signal: active investors, those who are actually participating in the movement of coins, are currently at an average loss of 20%. This is not just rumors or emotions—on-chain analytics data confirms serious pressure on short-term and medium-term holders.
The key indicator here is the AVIV ratio (Active Value to Investor Value). This metric compares the current market valuation of the active supply with its cost basis. And right now, it is stuck around the 0.8 mark. This is a direct zone of depreciation for those who bought BTC in recent months.
What Lies Behind the Numbers: True Market Mean
To filter out the "dead weight" of long-lost or dormant coins, analysts use the True Market Mean (TMM) metric. It excludes from the calculation all coins that have not moved for a long time, as their price basis is no longer relevant to the current market. Currently, TMM is estimated at around $76,700—and this acts as a strong resistance level. It was here in May that many investors chose to break even rather than hold positions further.
An AVIV value of 0.8 means that the active group of investors is, on average, sitting at a 20% loss. This is a noticeable but not yet critical level. In previous bear cycles, AVIV dropped to 0.5-0.6, corresponding to losses of 40-50%. However, according to leading analysts, Bitcoin does not necessarily need to reach such depths for a reversal.
Why This Is Not Yet the Bottom
The scale of Bitcoin adoption in the current cycle is significantly higher than in previous years. The influx of institutional money and ETFs has changed the market structure but has not eliminated its cyclical nature. As experts note, no matter how many billions flow into the market, Bitcoin continues to dictate its own rules.
My professional opinion: The current situation is a classic phase of consolidation and redistribution. A 20% loss for active investors is painful but not fatal. However, as long as TMM remains above the current price, the market stays under pressure. A breakout above $76,700 will be the first signal of a trend change. Until then—we maintain humility before the cycles and cold calculation.