The Bitcoin market is experiencing a curious moment: the main price pressure is coming not from miners, but from retail and institutional investors. An analysis of on-chain metrics indicates that sellers have become more active, while the miners of the first cryptocurrency prefer to hold onto their reserves.
A key signal is the net inflow of coins to the largest exchange, Binance. In recent days, the difference between incoming and outgoing funds has been +623 BTC. This means that investors are actively transferring coins to trading platforms, preparing to sell. Given Binance's dominant role in global liquidity, such an inflow is a direct indicator of growing selling pressure.
However, miners, contrary to expectations, are not participating in this process. The Puell Multiple indicator, which reflects miners' profitability relative to the historical average, stands at 0.62. This value is significantly below 1, indicating a decline in mining profitability. Nevertheless, miners are not rushing to offload their coins, preferring to hold them even under squeezed margins.
Additional confirmation of this "cautious" sentiment comes from the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) ratio, which is currently at 0.16. This indicates that most holders are in a zone of minimal unrealized profit or even loss. In other words, sales are driven not by greed and profit-taking, but by uncertainty or a desire to reduce risks.
What does this mean for the market?
The current situation is fundamentally different from past cycles, when miners typically triggered large-scale sell-offs. Now, the pressure is being generated by smaller participants, making it less aggressive. If miners continue to hold their coins and investors exhaust their desire to sell, the market could stabilize quickly.
My comment as an analyst: This balance of forces is a positive signal for the medium-term outlook. The absence of panic selling by miners suggests confidence in a price recovery. However, the rising balances on exchanges are a warning sign. If the inflow continues, we could see a test of local lows. The key level to watch is the volume of coin transfers to Binance: a decline in this metric would be the first sign of a reversal.