The bitcoin market is experiencing an intriguing phase where the pressure vector is shifting from traditional "bears"—miners—to a broader circle of investors. My analysis of on-chain metrics shows that the main supply for sale is currently being formed not by miners, but by speculative and short-term participants.
A key indicator—the net inflow to Binance, the world's largest exchange—has recorded a positive value of +623 BTC. This means more coins are arriving on the platform than being withdrawn. Given Binance's dominant role in shaping liquidity, such a signal directly points to an increased willingness to sell among holders.
However, the picture would not be complete without analyzing miner behavior. The Puell Multiple indicator, which reflects their profitability relative to the historical norm, stands at 0.62. This is below the average value, indicating a decline in mining profitability. Nevertheless, miners are not rushing to dump coins at a loss. They prefer to hold assets rather than lock in losses. This fundamentally distinguishes the current situation from previous cycles, when miners themselves triggered waves of sell-offs.
NUPL Ratio: Caution, Not Panic
Additional confirmation comes from the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) ratio, which is currently at 0.16. This value indicates that a significant portion of market participants are either sitting on marginal profits or already trading at a loss. The overall sentiment is far from euphoria—it is more a zone of cautious optimism bordering on anxiety.
Thus, the current pressure on price is being driven not by large-scale profit-taking or panic selling by miners, but by the gradual buildup of exchange balances among retail and institutional investors. This is a more restrained and less aggressive type of pressure than what we saw during moments of miner capitulation.
My professional opinion: As long as miners remain calm, the market will not enter a phase of deep correction. However, if the inflow to Binance continues to grow and demand from buyers does not increase, we may see a gradual shift in price toward the lower end of the current range. The key trigger for a reversal is a change in the trend of net flows to exchanges.