The average loss for active Bitcoin investors has reached 20%. The key AVIV (Active Value to Investor Value) indicator is currently in the depreciation zone, signaling significant pressure on short- and medium-term market participants.
To objectively assess the market situation, it is critical to analyze not all Bitcoin holders, but specifically the active supply—coins that are actually moving and participating in trading. This is precisely what the True Market Mean (TMM) indicator is used for. This metric excludes "dormant" coins from the calculation, those that have not moved for a long time and whose cost basis no longer reflects current realities. Some of these assets are considered permanently lost.
Resistance level at $76,700
Currently, the TMM is estimated at approximately $76,700 and acts as a strong resistance level. In May, we observed many investors choosing to lock in positions without a loss rather than continuing to hold them amid uncertainty. This triggered the pullback.
In conjunction with TMM, analysts examine the AVIV ratio. It reflects the current market valuation relative to the cost basis of the active supply. The indicator is currently hovering around 0.8—this is the depreciation zone. Such a value means that the active group of investors is, on average, at a loss of about 20%.
Why this is not yet the bottom
In previous cycles, the AVIV ratio dropped to 0.5–0.6, corresponding to losses of 40–50%. That is, the current situation is twice as mild in terms of depth. However, for a Bitcoin rebound, it is not necessary to reach such extreme depreciation levels. This is due to the scale of adoption the asset has achieved in the current cycle.
Nevertheless, I urge caution. Nothing contradicts Bitcoin's cyclical nature. Even the influx of institutional investors and the launch of ETFs have not changed the fundamental rules of the game. No matter how many billions of dollars flow into the market, Bitcoin still dictates its own laws. In such a situation, it is worth maintaining humility before the cycles and not trying to predict the bottom.
My analysis: A loss level of 20% for active holders is a warning signal, but not a catastrophe. It indicates that the market is in a phase of consolidation and redistribution. However, if we do not see a quick recovery above the TMM, the risks of a deeper correction remain. Keep an eye on volumes and the reaction to key levels.