The Bitcoin market is experiencing a phase where the main selling pressure is coming not from miners, as has often been the case in the past, but from other groups of investors. My analysis of on-chain data, based on metrics from leading analytical platforms, reveals an interesting dynamic: miners and long-term holders are showing remarkable resilience, refraining from rushing to take profits or reduce positions.
Key metrics indicate a shift in supply structure
The combined assessment of three fundamental on-chain indicators paints a clear picture of growing seller-side pressure, but with important nuances. The net inflow of Bitcoin to Binance, the world's largest exchange, is consistently positive at +623 BTC. This means more coins are arriving on the platform than being withdrawn, which is a classic sign of preparation for selling.
However, unlike previous bearish cycles, miners are not involved in this process. The Puell Multiple, which reflects miner profitability relative to the historical average, stands at 0.62. This indicates that their profitability is below average, yet despite this, they are not dumping coins at a loss. They are holding, demonstrating confidence in the asset's long-term prospects.
Further confirmation comes from the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) ratio, which is at 0.16. This metric suggests that the unrealized profit of market participants remains relatively low. Many investors are selling either with minimal profit or even at a slight loss. The overall sentiment is far from euphoria, distinguishing the current situation from periods when mass sell-offs were triggered by miners.
Investor behavior: caution, not panic
Thus, the main driver of price pressure right now is not profit-taking by large players, but rather caution and, possibly, stop-losses from a broader circle of investors who are moving coins to exchanges. Miners and long-term holders are not showing enough activity to amplify this pressure.
This balance of forces makes the current picture less alarming than during broad sell-offs. Future dynamics will critically depend on whether exchange balances continue to grow. If the inflow stops, the pressure will quickly ease, paving the way for recovery. If it intensifies, we may see a local bottom formed not by panic, but by a deliberate transfer of assets.
My expert view: A situation where miners hold coins despite low profitability, and pressure comes from short-term speculators, is a positive signal. It indicates that fundamental holders believe in the asset, and the current correction is more technical and psychological in nature rather than structural. As long as we do not see panic selling from "smart money," Bitcoin has every chance for consolidation and subsequent growth.