Active Bitcoin holders are going into the red: the average loss has reached 20%

The Bitcoin market is showing a worrying signal: an active group of investors, which actually drives supply, has lost an average of 20% of their investments. This is not just general statistics across all holders, but a more precise snapshot based on an analysis of active coins that are actually circulating.

The key indicator here is the AVIV ratio (Active Value to Investor Value). It compares the current market value of the active supply with its cost basis. Currently, this indicator is in the zone around 0.8, which directly points to the depreciation of positions held by active market participants. Simply put, those who recently bought and moved bitcoins are now sitting at a deep loss.

What the True Market Mean Shows

For a more accurate assessment, I use the True Market Mean (TMM) metric. It excludes "dead" and long-inactive coins from calculations, which distort the real picture. Currently, the TMM is estimated at around $76,700 — and this acts as a strong resistance level. In May, we saw many investors choose to break even at this exact mark rather than hold their positions further.

The active supply, assessed through TMM, shows that the average purchase price for active traders is around $76,700. With the current market price around $61,000, we get that 20% loss. This is a notable level, but historically it is not the bottom.

Why This Is Not Yet the Bottom

In previous bear cycles, the AVIV ratio fell to 0.5–0.6, which corresponded to losses of 40–50%. The current situation is twice as mild. However, this does not mean we will necessarily see a repeat of those depths. The scale of Bitcoin adoption in this cycle is completely different, and institutional money through ETFs may have changed the demand structure.

Nevertheless, the nature of Bitcoin remains cyclical. No billions of dollars in inflows cancel out its own market laws. Active investors must maintain humility before the cycles — the current correction has not yet exhausted its potential, and the market may spring surprises.

My expert opinion: Until the AVIV reaches the 0.6–0.7 zone, it is too early to talk about a full reversal. The current level of losses for active holders is a zone of uncertainty, not the bottom. Watch the volume of capitulation — it will indicate the true turning point.