The Bitcoin market is experiencing an interesting structural shift. According to my analysis of on-chain data, the main pressure on the BTC price comes from short-term investors, not miners or long-term holders. This is an important nuance that changes the usual picture of market dynamics.
Three key indicators point to selling
The combination of three metrics paints a clear picture of growing selling pressure. The net inflow of Bitcoin to Binance, the world's largest exchange, stands at +623 BTC. This means more coins are being deposited to the platform than withdrawn, which is a direct signal of an intention to sell.
At the same time, the Puell Multiple indicator, which reflects miner profitability relative to the historical average, is at 0.62. This suggests that miners are earning below-average income, but notably, they are not rushing to offload their coins. They prefer to hold assets rather than lock in losses.
The third signal is the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) ratio at 0.16. It shows that investors' unrealized profits remain low. Many market participants are selling either at a loss or with minimal gain. The overall sentiment is far from euphoria, which is more characteristic of a cautious phase rather than a panic sell-off.
Who is putting pressure on the price?
Thus, the main source of supply in the market is not miners or long-term holders, but other groups of investors. The current situation is fundamentally different from periods when sell-offs were triggered by miners. Investor behavior reflects caution rather than panic. They are increasing their balances on exchanges, preparing for sales, but the scale of this pressure is still limited.
Future dynamics will depend on whether investors continue to increase the volume of coins on exchanges. If the net inflow to Binance persists, pressure on the price could intensify. However, the absence of mass selling by miners and long-term holders makes the current picture less alarming than during broad sell-offs. This is more of a game of nerves than a fundamental collapse.
Expert opinion: The situation resembles a "calm before the storm" or, conversely, an accumulation phase. If investors who are currently depositing coins to exchanges do not follow through on their intentions, the market could recover quickly. The key level to watch is the dynamics of reserves on Binance. For now, I see no reason for panic, but also no reason for unrestrained optimism.