The cryptocurrency market is once again in the spotlight: Bitcoin's current price dynamics are eerily repeating the 2022 pattern. Observers note a June bottom followed by a sharp rebound, but in my analysis, this could be the biggest "bull trap" of the current cycle. Instead of the long-awaited rally, we may face a final capitulation.
Fractal Similarity: Rebound Before a Crash
Bitcoin's current movement structure is nearly identical to what we saw in 2022. After hitting a local bottom in June, a vigorous rebound followed, which retail traders quickly dubbed the start of a new bullish trend. However, a key indicator—testing the 200-day moving average—again signals a potential reversal.
In 2022, after a similar June bottom, Bitcoin lost about another 28% of its value in November-December. If the fractal repeats, we can expect another sharp crash that will liquidate most long positions. Only after that, in my estimation, can the market form a true bottom in the third or fourth quarter.
Arguments for a "Bottom": On-Chain Data
However, it's not so clear-cut. Data from on-chain indicators suggests that the current situation may not just be a "trap" but the final phase of the bear market. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has dropped to -0.35—the lowest value in the last 20 months. Such levels were only seen after the FTX collapse in December 2022, when Bitcoin fell below $16,000. Historically, these extreme SOPR values accurately preceded reversals in 2015 and 2019.
Additionally, Bitcoin's current price exceeds its realized price by only 16%. In the past, when the asset traded this close to that zone, the average return after six months was 41%, and after a year—81%. This suggests that growth potential still exists, but only if the market does not fall below critical support levels.
My conclusion: The market is in an extremely volatile phase. On one hand, repeating the 2022 scenario poses serious risks for long position holders. On the other, extreme on-chain metrics indicate we may be much closer to a true bottom than it seems. The key level to watch is $65,000. A firm hold above will open the path to $67,000–$70,000, where a massive short squeeze is likely. However, a break below would confirm the bearish scenario, and investors should then prepare for a final capitulation.