The Bitcoin market is once again showing signs of pressure on short-term and active participants. According to fresh on-chain data, the average loss of active investors in the first cryptocurrency has reached 20%. This conclusion is based on an analysis of the AVIV (Active Value to Investor Value) metric, which is currently in the depreciation zone.
To get a more accurate picture of the market state, I recommend focusing not on all Bitcoin holders, but exclusively on the active supply. The key tool here is the True Market Mean (TMM) indicator. Unlike standard averages, TMM excludes coins that have not moved for a long time from the calculation. Such assets have essentially lost connection with current market prices and are often considered illiquid.
What Does True Market Mean Show?
Currently, TMM is estimated at around $76,700. This level acts as strong resistance. In May, we already observed how many investors preferred to exit the market without a loss rather than continue holding positions as this level approached. The AVIV ratio, which compares the current market valuation to the cost basis of the active supply, is now hovering around 0.8. This is the depreciation zone, indicating a 20% loss for the active group.
It is important to understand the context: the current 20% loss is noticeable but not a critical level. In previous bear cycles, the AVIV ratio dropped to 0.5–0.6, corresponding to drawdowns of 40–50%. That is, the current situation is twice as mild as historical lows.
Why This Is Not Yet the Bottom?
It is worth emphasizing that for a Bitcoin reversal, it is not necessary to reach the extreme depreciation levels of past years. The scale of asset adoption in the current cycle is significantly higher, which changes the dynamics. However, it would be naive to assume that the influx of institutional capital and the launch of ETFs have eliminated cyclicality. Bitcoin still dictates its own rules, regardless of the billions poured in.
My expert opinion: The market is in a phase where patience becomes a key asset. The $76,700 level on TMM is not just a number but a psychological barrier. As long as active investors incur losses but do not panic, we will not see capitulation. However, ignoring cyclicality means taking risks. Humility before market cycles is not a weakness but a survival strategy.