The Bitcoin market is showing a frightening similarity to the dynamics of 2022. The June bottom, the subsequent bounce that retail investors mistake for a rescue, and the preparation for a decisive crash—this scenario has happened before, and its repetition could lead to the biggest bull trap of the current cycle.
Analyzing the current price structure, I see an almost exact repetition of the 2022 fractal. Back then, after the June low, there was a sharp bounce that triggered a massive influx of long positions and euphoria among retail. However, this was followed by a final capitulation. Today, Bitcoin is again testing the 200-day moving average, and retail traders are opening longs, ignoring the warning signs.
Fractal Similarity and Key Levels
The 2022 fractal included three stages: the June bottom, a false recovery with RSI divergence, and a final downward push. In 2022, after the June low, Bitcoin lost about another 28% in November-December. If this scenario repeats, we can expect a final crash with the liquidation of long positions, after which a real reversal will only begin in the third or fourth quarter.
The key resistance level is $65,000. If Bitcoin cannot consolidate above this mark, the current recovery will prove false. My tactic: I am holding a long position with a target of $67,000–$70,000, where the market will likely gather liquidity. After that, I plan to accumulate shorts. If consolidation above $65,000 does not occur, I will exit the long earlier and start shorting, without waiting for $67,000.
Arguments for a New Bottom
Data on realized profit and loss (SOPR) has fallen to a 20-month low of -0.35. This level was only seen in December 2022, after the FTX collapse, when Bitcoin dropped below $16,000. Historically, SOPR has accurately identified bottoms: a similar pattern occurred in 2015 and 2019, followed by a reversal. This is a strong argument that the current correction is not yet complete.
Additionally, Bitcoin is trading only 16% above the realized price. Historically, at such proximity to this zone, returns averaged 41% after six months and 81% after a year. However, this does not guarantee immediate growth—rather, it points to a possible bottom, but after a final wave of panic.
My conclusion: The market is preparing for a final capitulation, and the current bounce is a trap for retail investors. The strategy of accumulating shorts after reaching the $67,000–$70,000 zone seems justified, but the key signal is a breakout of the $65,000 level. If it does not happen, expect a sharp reversal downward.