The digital asset market is once again showing a frightening resemblance to the dynamics of 2022. My analysis of the current chart configuration of the first cryptocurrency indicates that we are witnessing an almost frame-by-frame repetition of the past bear cycle. The June bottom, followed by a bounce perceived by retail investors as a signal to escape — all of this has happened before. The main question now is: will a final capitulation follow?
Fractal Similarity and Key Levels
At the moment, Bitcoin is testing the 200-day moving average. Retail traders are actively opening long positions, succumbing to euphoria. However, if we extrapolate the price behavior of 2022, this rally will be followed by a sharp reversal. Back then, after the June bottom, Bitcoin lost about another 28% of its value in November-December. We are seeing RSI divergence and a false recovery — classic signs that the current bounce is merely a "bull trap."
The key resistance level is currently in the $65,000 – $67,000 zone. If buyers fail to consolidate above this range, we will likely see a sharp decline with the liquidation of long positions. In the event of a breakout above $67,000, the market could form a local top around $70,000, after which short positions will begin to accumulate for a final crash in the third and fourth quarters.
Fundamental Indicators Confirm the Risk
On-chain analytics data only reinforces my concern. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has dropped to -0.35 — the lowest value in the last 20 months. The last time such a level was observed was in December 2022, when, after the FTX collapse, Bitcoin fell below $16,000. Historically, this indicator has pointed to local bottoms with high accuracy, followed by reversals in 2015 and 2019.
Additionally, Bitcoin's current market price exceeds its realized price by only 16%. In the past, under such compression, the average return after six months was 41%, and after a year, 81%. However, given macroeconomic instability and the lack of new growth triggers, I lean toward the scenario of a bearish pattern repetition.
My professional opinion: Investors should exercise extreme caution. The current bounce looks like a trap for bulls. A strategy of accumulating short positions after testing the $67,000 – $70,000 zone appears most rational. Ignoring these fractal signals could lead to significant financial losses in the coming months.