Active participants in the Bitcoin market are on average at a 20% loss. This conclusion can be drawn from an analysis of the AVIV (Active Value to Investor Value) ratio, which is currently entrenched in the zone of depreciation.
For an objective assessment of the situation, it is not enough to look at all holders of the first cryptocurrency. It is much more informative to analyze the active supply — coins that are actually moving and participating in trading. This is precisely what the True Market Mean (TMM) indicator is used for.
TMM excludes from the calculation all coins that have remained stationary for a long time. Their cost basis is no longer relevant to current market prices, and some of these assets are even considered lost. Currently, TMM is estimated at approximately $76,700 and acts as a resistance level. This was clearly evident back in May, when many investors chose to exit the market without a loss rather than continue holding positions.
In conjunction with TMM, we consider the AVIV ratio. It reflects the current market valuation relative to the cost basis of the active supply. Currently, this indicator is hovering around 0.8 — this is the depreciation zone. Such a value means that the active group of investors is, on average, suffering a loss of about 20%. This is a notable level, but as historical data shows, it is not yet comparable to past bear markets.
Why this is not yet the bottom
In previous cycles, the AVIV ratio dropped to 0.5–0.6, which corresponded to losses of 40–50% — twice as deep as the current level. For Bitcoin to bounce, it does not necessarily need to reach such a level of depreciation. This is related to the scale of adoption the asset has achieved in the current cycle.
Nevertheless, I urge caution. Nothing contradicts the cyclical nature of Bitcoin so far. Even the influx of institutional funds and the launch of ETFs have not fundamentally changed it. No matter how many billions of dollars flow into the market, Bitcoin still dictates its own rules.
Expert opinion: The current situation is a classic example of a "bear market rally" against a backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty. A 20% loss level for active investors is not yet the bottom of the cycle, but it is already a warning signal. The market may continue to consolidate or even decline before we see a reversal. Maintain humility before the cycles — this is the main lesson that Bitcoin teaches us.