The current correction in the Bitcoin market is putting noticeable pressure on the most active segment of investors. The latest on-chain data shows that this group of participants is, on average, facing losses of around 20%. The key indicator here is the AVIV ratio (Active Value to Investor Value), which has now settled in the depreciation zone.
True Market Price: What TMM Shows
To accurately assess the situation, I analyze not the entire market, but specifically the active supply. The True Market Mean (TMM) indicator helps with this. Its essence is to exclude from the calculation "dormant" coins that have not moved for a long time and whose purchase price is no longer relevant to current reality. Some of these assets can be considered permanently lost.
Currently, the TMM is estimated at around $76,700, and this level acts as strong resistance. It was here in May that many investors chose to break even rather than hold their positions further. In conjunction with TMM, I consider the AVIV indicator. It reflects the current market valuation relative to the cost basis of the active supply. AVIV is now holding around 0.8 — this is the depreciation zone.
A value of 0.8 means that the active group of investors is, on average, at a loss of about 20%. This is a notable level, but it is not yet comparable to past bear markets.
Why This Is Not Yet the Bottom
In previous cycles, the AVIV ratio dropped to 0.5–0.6, corresponding to losses of 40–50%. That is, the current situation is twice as mild. For a reversal, Bitcoin does not necessarily need to reach such extreme depreciation values. This is due to the scale of adoption the asset has achieved in the current cycle.
Nevertheless, I urge caution. Nothing contradicts the cyclical nature of Bitcoin. Even the influx of institutional money and ETFs has not changed it. No matter how many billions of dollars flow into the market, Bitcoin still dictates its own rules. In such a situation, it is worth maintaining humility before the cycles.
My expert opinion: The current 20% loss among active investors is not the bottom, but rather a signal of a transition into a phase of prolonged consolidation. Until AVIV shows deeper values (0.6 and below) or a sharp reversal, the market will remain in a zone of uncertainty. Investors should prepare for volatility, not a quick recovery.