The Bitcoin market is experiencing an interesting period. The main pressure on the price comes not from miners, as one might assume, but from other groups of investors. My analysis of on-chain data confirms this shift in direction.
The key indicator is the net inflow of Bitcoin to the Binance exchange. It stands at +623 BTC, meaning more coins are arriving on the trading platform than are being withdrawn. Since Binance is the largest liquidity hub, this directly points to a growing desire to sell among investors.
Miners Hold the Line
At the same time, miners are demonstrating a completely different strategy. The Puell Multiple indicator is at 0.62, indicating that miners' revenues are below the historical average. Despite the decline in profitability, they are not rushing to lock in losses and prefer to hold onto their coins. This fundamentally distinguishes the current situation from past cycles, when miners were the ones initiating large-scale sell-offs.
Additional confirmation comes from the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) ratio at 0.16. It signals that many market participants are selling either with minimal profit or at a loss. The overall sentiment is far from euphoria, which is uncharacteristic of market cycle peaks.
Analyst's Conclusions
Thus, the main source of supply is becoming retail and institutional investors, not miners. The inflow to Binance is creating the primary pressure on the price, but its scale is currently limited by the absence of panic sentiment. Further dynamics will depend on whether the buildup of balances on the exchange continues or investors shift to accumulation.
My expert opinion: The current situation is more of a cautious profit-taking than a capitulation. The absence of pressure from miners is a positive signal that could limit the depth of the correction. However, if the inflow to Binance persists, we may see a test of lower support levels.